Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - January 9, 2023 - Wrong Bid, Good Result

 

Question: 

West has opened a weak 2S. N and E have passes and S is holding a hand with 19 HCP and overcalls 3C E makes a defensive bid of 3S. N had assumed that S overcalled holding 5C bid 4C over East’s bid. The hand makes 4C but in hindsight it appears it could have made more points for N/S. What is the best way for S to give a better picture of their holding?

Mark:

This hand is very interesting as an example of a case where a wrong action might get a good result,

 West's decision to open 2 spades would get almost no support among strong players. Many teachers would tell you to have a 6 card suit headed at least KQ or QJ10. There's too much risk that your partner will expect a different hand and will make a wrong decision as a result. The fact that ALL the high card points are outside spades, makes things very risky for getting partner to attempt a "phantom sacrifice" ( where you go down expecting a profit because of the presumed even more profitable contract that the opponents are in, but it turns out the opponents were heading for a minus score.) 

Here's what could happen if W passes in 1st seat, as I would as well as 99% of A players: N opens 1 heart and South jumps to 4 hearts. E may or may not enter with a 2 diamond overcall. If E does bid 2 D, W may pass 4H, fearing the vulnerability. Many red- blooded Wests would bid 5 D not expecting to make it, but figuring 4 H is makeable. It happens that 5 D by EW is cold, so, doubled or not, 5D, played correctly, will fetch a great matchpoint score. If E doesn't intervene, 4 hearts is very unlikely to make. The only lead by E that allows 4H to make is the Spade King. That lead is very unlikely to be made absent that ill- advised 2 spade opening. If, after that 2S opening N-S buy the hand at 4H, E will surely lead the Spade king, allowing a loser to be thrown as N-S suddenly have 3 spade tricks . then normal, careful play will allow NS to make 4H.

  On the actual auction, NS will usually find themselves in 4H going down 1 or 2 tricks. If W buys the hand at 2 spades, he will make 4. There are at least 6 possible results. including game for E-W. A plus score is always better than a minus. Only scores of 200 or more for either side are fairly sure to be good.