Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - August 21, 2023 - What type of arrival?

 

Question: You hear so much about fast arrival and slow arrival. Some people also say when you know, you go.  Looking at this hand and the bidding, is there anything wrong with the fast arrival approach?

Mark:

This isn't technically a case of "fast arrival." Fast arrival is normally a bid where slower, forcing bids are actually stronger than the jump to game. 

In this case, the jump to game is very strong, as it should be. South knows that North may have scraped up a bid on a very minimum hand, maybe sub- minimum as on the actual hand. Even opposite such a meager North hand, game is highly probable and should be bid. 

Most West players would lead a heart to set up 3 tricks for the defense as soon as either partner gets in. Game can't be made in this case without first giving up the diamond ace. Luckily for South, the E-W hearts are 4-4 and the defenders can take only 4 total tricks and 3 NT makes. If W finds a lead of the 8 of diamonds, which looks like "top of nothing" and E finds a shift to hearts, (which is not automatic. Clubs look like a more attractive switch) Still, the double dummy "analysis" will say that 2NT is the limit while nearly everyone will make at least 9 tricks. Those who fail to bid game will get a poor board. 

One reason nearly everyone will be in game is that many, probably most, South players will open a strong 2 clubs looking at 22 HCP, a nice 5 card suit and a 10 of spades "bonus" card. I would have opened 2 clubs, so I don't have to hold my breath praying that my partner doesn't pass me in 1 club, as many players would do with 4HCP. They will surely pass a 2NT opening, which is why this hand is too good for opening 2NT. There are some experts that would open 1 club and then, the minute partner responds with practically anything, jump to game.

Fast Arrival is a pretty advanced concept, generally outside the scope of these discussions. Fast Arrival  tends to deny interest in slam and is mostly intended to give away as little information as possible to the defenders, as well as avoiding lead- directing and sacrifice bids. In this case, South's bidding shows a hand just shy of a 2 club opening and North is encouraged to keep bidding with more than 9 points or slightly less and extra suit quality.

 In this case, North is likely to be worried that they should have passed the 1 club opening, but that would have led to a probable very bad result. Passing 1 club could have resulted in playing a in a 3-1 trump suit where the defenders have 9 trumps between them. (Not the case on his hand, but you have to consider it possible looking only at the North hand. That's why I agree with North taking a bid with a sub- minimum hand. I would definitely bid 1 diamond, not 1 spade with the North hand. The only way 1 spade works is if South has 4 spades and raises. Most of the time South will have something other than 4 spades and far less than 22 points and the auction will get too high. 

If I were North, I bid 1 diamond. If partner next bids 1 heart (more probable than 1 spade) you pass, happy that you are at a low level and in a better place than 1 club. Better yet, if South does have 4 spades and bids 1 spade, you pass that, alerting partner that you have a very weak hand. You can later raise spades if the opponents come in, but partner has been warned and you are unlikely to get too high.

One more thing about the play of this hand. When South plays 3NT and gets a heart lead, there is a real concern that W may have more than 4 hearts and knowing that the hand would then be down after an attempt to dislodge the ace of diamonds. Cashing the top spades in hope that you can establish the 4th one in dummy is against the odds. Now you go down even though the hearts are 4-4. Even if the spades break, you still need to finesse clubs successfully to come to 9 tricks. The combined probability of success with this line is much less than finding hearts 4-4.