Weekly Hand Analysis - Vic Johnson - July 18, 2022 -Questionable Preemptive Bidding

Question: 

N opens 1 H on 17 HCP and 6 H, E is holding 7 S and 15 HCP and overcalls 3 S which indicates length in S but is interpreted by N as less than opening point count. 

Based on shortness in S, N bids 4 H and then doubles E bid of 4 S. Contract was down 1 doubled.

 Would it have been better for E to overcall the 1 H opener with a bid of 1 S to indicate point count or make the 3 S bid indicating length?

Vic:

In bridge aggressive is good. Reckless, however, is not good. Quite often there is a fine line between the two that is challenging to stay on the right side of. 

There are also good lies & bad lies. Arguably, the two worst lies you can make are to overvalue your hand or undervalue your hand to partner. 

An opening bid (or jump overcall bid) at the three level promises partner two things (not just one). It promises length (exactly 7 cards). But it also promises a weak (less than opening) hand. By overcalling 3S, East has delivered a very bad lie about strength. 

The proper first call for East would be 1S. They can show points & a 6+ card suit by rebidding spades at their next chance to call. 

The bids of 4H by North & 4S by east both cross the line from aggressive to reckless (that is assuming they are not being made as a deliberate sacrifice). A gold star to North for their penalty DBL. East deserves to go down. 

If North were allowed to play in 4H & opted to play the diamond suit by leading the Ace, the diamond King would drop. That would allow them to make their 4H contract. 

The odds of a 4-1 diamond split, however, are only 28% & the chances that the singleton would be the King is only a small fraction of that. So if North was actually imagining making 4H, that would stand as a classic example of "slot machine" bidding.