Monday, February 27, 2023

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - March 6, 2023 - Only five spades

 

Question:  East has only five spades.  Should East make 2 diamonds the second bid and then return to spades depending on what West does?

Mark:

The question last week focused on West's action in the first round of bidding. Now it's East's turn. At the first turn, East, after a routine pass by N, has a decision between two logical alternatives. An expert panel is likely to divide about 50-50 between them, namely 1NT and 1 Spade. 

Why 1NT? 

You have 17 HCP, good honors in all 4 suits and a good possibility of difficulty describing the hand at the second turn if you open the "obvious" 1 Spade. If you open the hand 1NT, you increase the chance you will become declarer, and that works in your favor, since you are guaranteed a stopper in the suits headed by only the king. The negatives about 1 NT is that you are a little more likely to miss an 8 card spade fit, especially if you buy the hand at 1NT with partner too weak to do something constructive; also, you are close to being too strong for 1NT. It's not just 17 points, it's the kind of hand you might re-evaluate to 18 or even 19. This is the reason I agree with the opening bid of 1 Spade. However, having decided on 1 Spade, you want to be sure to follow through in treating this as significantly more than just an opening hand with 5 spades. So now, when the 2H overcall comes back to you, you have 3 reasonable choices, none of them being 2 Spades. 2 Spades shows a MINIMUM opening and generally 6 decent spades. That's not your actual hand! 

The 3 better choices are Double, 2NT and 3 Diamonds, the first 2 being much better in my opinion. 

The reopening Double suggests short hearts, better than a minimum hand, not necessarily this much better, and a desire to compete further without a clear idea in what suit. A big benefit of the reopening Double is that it gives partner a chance to pass for penalties with long hearts and a decent hand. Remember that if partner Doubled 2 hearts in this auction it wouldn't show a desire to defend 2 hearts, it would show both minors (Negative Double). The way to penalize 2 hearts when  playing Negative Doubles is to pass 2 H then pass the reopening D. 

That brings us to what might East do at the 2nd turn. The choice is close between 2NT, which really describes the hand fairly well, showing 18 or 19 points( remember the re-evaluation) and a heart stopper and a reopening double. The only downside I see to 2NT is that it gives up on the possibility of defending 2 hearts Doubled if that's what partner was hoping for. The more you have in hearts, the less likely that is. In this case, the Double gives W a close decision between several good options: Pass for penalties is a bit aggressive but could strike gold and I kind of like it. 2 NT is inviting, not forcing, and promises a good H stopper, which you certainly have. In this case, partner is likely to put you in 3NT, which can always be made as the cards, even after the scariest lead by N, the 3 of clubs. You would have to play exceptionally well at trick 1, meaning you avoid winning it if given that chance. 

As this is a bidding question, I leave the play discussion up to the most ambitious readers who might want to lay out the hand and play it trick by trick. You'll be rewarded by learning a great advanced lesson in this case. Skip this play discussion if you don't feel ready to wade into the deep end. 

  Passing to reopening D on some days could risk the embarrassing result of -470, but more often, as on this hand, will show a nice profit. Depending on how well S plays, the profit could even exceed the 400 or more you make at 3NT. If E bid 2NT at the 2nd turn, W should go to 3NT. The play is much less challenging when 3NT is played by E. 

  In summary, either of East's 2 top choices after opening 1 Spade will lead to a nice plus and an excellent match point (or IMP) result as long as you didn't give in to the "safe" rebid of 2 Spades. Opening 1 NT, which I think undervalues the hand, could end the bidding when game is likely despite the big misfit in spades. The kind of re- evaluation of points I'm suggesting is pretty advanced for this discussion, so don't despair if it seems a bit esoteric.


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