Monday, February 20, 2023

Weekly Hand Analysis - Vic Johnson - February 27, 2023 - 5D or 3NT

 

Question:  This hand went down in 5D and so 3NT was a better bid.  How should West make the decision to go to 3NT?

Vic:

West does not have a heart stopper. That means West should NOT make the decision to go to 3NT. Unless, that is, West is a believer in "Ho Chunk Bridge". Going to 3NT would be rolling the dice (gambling) big time, plain & simple. 

If West does go to 3NT, that would put North on lead. Focusing just on the North hand, hearts would be a no-brainer opening lead. And if North leads hearts, NS deserve the first five tricks. That would put West down one before West even got the lead. 

It is interesting, however, that South made a questionable overcall of 1S. Does South really want partner to lead to their very weak spade suit should the two of them end up defending? I would certainly not want partner to lead spades if I was South. 

If North does decide to trust their partner in the hand above & lead a spade, rather than leading their own heart suit, declarer deserves to make their contract. Should that happen, the questionable 1S overcall will have cost NS dearly. 

My suggestion is that West should bid 3S subsequent to partner's raise to 3D. That would promises a spade stopper ("two suits tells") & imply that East should go to 3NT holding a heart stopper. Lacking a heart stopper, East should take the contract back to diamonds. At that point it would not be unreasonable, especially playing duplicate bridge, for West to raise to 5D. 

If the club King had been either in the North hand or in the East hand, West deserves to make 5D. The bridge Gods were not kind to West on this hand. 

Ain't bridge a great game?


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