Question: This hand went down 2 in 3NT. How does one know to stay out of NT when bidding game?
Mark:
Interesting hand! N-S have a combined 23 HCP and a misfit, so it was pretty aggressive to get to game. However, because of key intermediate cards, 10s, 9s and even a key 8, on almost any foreseeable defense, 3NT can be made if S manages entries carefully.
My guess is that
declarer used a precious dummy entry to take the diamond finesse. That would be
a critical mistake, giving the defenders a chance to prevent the South hand
from cashing diamond tricks after the diamonds are cashed. To be sure, it's an intermediate+
play challenge. As soon as S gets in after the opening lead, play the ace then
Q of diamonds, then lead the heart J and overtake with the Q. If W ducks, S
takes 4 diamonds and can lead any of the remaining suits. At least 9
tricks will result. If W grabs the first round of hearts, 9 tricks are easy and
E-W have to take all 4 tricks before 1 of them goes to sleep.
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