Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - March 11, 2024 - Bid

 

Mark:

I can't blame anyone in this case. The hands fit magically, and I don't think there's a legitimate way to discover that in a standard auction. The hands have a combined 22 high card points. In a mostly A level game, I expect that slightly more than half N-S pairs will get to 4 hearts. Among those pairs that do reach the game, it will be South, re- evaluating the hand as being worth an opening bid opposite a six card heart suit. I would bid 4 hearts directly over my partner's 2 heart re-bid, but not with absolute confidence. You can't expect North to bid again. South's 3 hearts, which is conservative but reasonable, asks North if they have anything extra beyond what has already been said. The answer is:  Nothing significantly extra.

  Now remember, the bidding is only an estimate of what will happen in the play. If you look at only the N-S hands, not knowing how any suits are divided or cards located in E-W, 4 hearts is a little better than 50%. Hearts and/or diamonds could break 4:1( about 50% combined), which would put 4 hearts in jeopardy.  As it happens on the actual deal, East has no damaging lead to make and would be very unlikely to prevent N from taking 11 tricks. To hold the hand to 10 tricks, E must underlead the ace of clubs and W must return a spade to establish a spade trick. If E-W found that defense, they would be suspected of being totally clueless or cheating.

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