Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - March 18, 2024 - Overcall

 

Mark:

The quick and simple answer to the question is NO! Why, you ask? 2 spades looks very likely to make, possibly with an overtrick or 2, depending on the efficiency of the defense. It's easy to know that if E-W can see each other's hands, or have some improper way to communicate their holdings. Assuming everyone is being ethical and playing within the rules, East should be too occupied with praying that partner doesn't re- open with a 2 heart bid to be looking for a good contract in spades or diamonds. 

What to do if partner does re- open with 2 hearts? Now it's a tossup between passing and bidding 2 spades. I agree with West's pass of 1NT. It looks risky to re- open opposite a passed partner. Remember that 2 spades by East directly over 1NT, is constructive and, in many partnerships, forcing at least 1 round. It might propel E-W to 4 spades, which is likely to be set.

  Most less than expert bridge players are familiar with basic strategy of casino Blackjack. Do you "take a hit" if you are dealt 18? What if you stand pat and see that the next card turned up is a 3? Does that mean you made a mistake by not taking the hit? The best question is what to do if faced with the same choice 10 times? If you take the hit and make similarly risky decisions, you will lose a lot of money while scoring the occasional brief gain. This is one of those times when East has an "opportunity" to make a winning but ill- advised bid. If W bids 2 hearts when 1NT comes back, that bid is also ill- advised, but becomes a winner if E now escapes to 2 spades (Also not necessarily a wise bid, but happens to be successful). The actual auction is what I would expect at a table with all "A" players. Good going, you 4! E has to choose a lead against 1 NT. It looks like a tossup. Some players would be a little reluctant to lead away from that spade holding, but most "A" players would lead it. Other things being equal, if the opponents have bid NT and made no attempt at finding a major suit fit, they might have a hidden minor suit fit that you could be helping them develop, but they are much less likely to have such a major suit fit. After a spade lead, 1NT probably goes set, but after a 4th best diamond, N might make an overtrick. It's a difficult hand to predict with a lot to think about for everyone, depending on the contract.