Monday, April 10, 2023

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - April 17, 2023 - 2NT

 

Question:  South has 18  HCP and decides to bid 2NT on the second bid.  North bids 3NT.  Should South view this bid as a closeout bid or should South return to the strongest suit, hearts.

Mark:

The usual plan when holding 18 points is to open 1 of a suit and, after partner's response at the 1 level (including 1NT) bid 2NT to show that hand. However, things change when partner passes the 1 H bid and R hand opponent reopens the bidding. Now S knows that partner has 5 points maximum and therefore it's very unlikely there's a makeable game. Partner's maximum of 5 (minimum of 0) adds at most to 23 points, while the worst case scenario is that our 18 points are all the points for N-S. If N has 0 points, the chance of making even 1 NT is in doubt. If S is feeling really optimistic, the best bid is 1NT over 1 spade. That shows 18 to 21. (Remember, with 20 0r 21 partner is expected to have opened 2NT, but with a nice 5 card heart suit, we are likely to open 1H.) 

  REMEMBER THIS: Opener bidding 1 NT over interference when partner has shown a bust by failing to act over 1 of a suit GUARANTEES 18+ points. Even 21 points is not out of the question, so the jump to 2 NT must be something really special, maybe a solid, running 6 card heart suit and 2 more sure tricks on the side, barely short of requirements for an opening bid of 2 clubs. Given that, North's raise to 3NT is a bit ambitious, but it's reasonable. North is responding to what S SHOULD have based on the bidding so far. Also, while N might want to consider raising hearts at the 3 or 4 level with 3 card support for partner's suit, I tend to agree with trying for 9 tricks instead of 10.

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