Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - May 1, 2023 -Game in 3NT?

 Question: 

West has 16 HCP, 3 – 4-card suits and has opened 1C. Responder has 8 HCP, and bids 1D. Declarer bids 1S and partner passes. Based on combined point count E/W could/should be in 3 NT? Should declarer have bid 1 NT over responder’s diamond bid?

Mark:

Let's focus on the most important part first. When is a bid absolutely forcing? The West hand, as far as East knows, is unlimited other than knowing that it's not big enough for an opening 2 club bid. There could be 21 points. Certainly 18 or 19 is in the picture. East must give West a chance to define the hand further. In this case, the choice is mainly between 1 NT (imperfect because of weak, short hearts) and 2 spades (imperfect because of only 3 spades). Perfect or not, when partner makes a bid that is 100% forcing, you must bid. That means you may have to come up with a bid that doesn't describe your hand well, but is better than other alternatives, since pass is not an alternative. 

  Now to why did West bid 1 spade rather than 1 heart. It is standard to bid up the line. Even if hearts were considerably weaker than the spades, you absolutely deny holding 4 hearts when bidding 1 spade, having opened 1 club and heard 1 D from partner. If a strong partnership had this auction, it would undergo scrutiny for possible irregular action, such as E-W possibly knowing something about each other's hands outside the auction as shown.

  On this hand, had both E and W bid normally, the auction would begin just as it did, 1C- 1D. Then W would bid 1 heart and E would have a perfectly comfortable 1NT bid. W should know that if E is minimum for the bidding so far(i.e. 6 or 7 points), the partnership should not be in game. If E is maximum (ie 9 or 10) you do want to be in game, probably 3NT. How to say that? W bids 2NT, invitational. E is allowed to pass this non- forcing bid, but can bid on with the appropriate hand since a conditional invitation was issued. What to do with the actual 8 point hand? Most good players would pass, unless they know their partner to be unusually timid or the defenders to be weaker players.  In this case, aggressive action by E-W will probably be undeservedly rewarded. A spade lead against an auction that (properly) doesn't mention spades is near certain from the South hand against 2 or 3NT. From that point on E-W will take 9 or 10 tricks. With a combined total of 24 high card points, E-W would theoretically be less likely than more to have game. West's strong intermediate clubs and East's fairly strong diamond spots might make them both feel lucky, but I don't recommend bidding game with a combined 24 points and with neither partner having a 5 card suit. If NT is played by West in this case. it becomes challenging to make 9 tricks. It can be done with perfect guessing, but most declarers, even good ones, are likely to take only 8 tricks from the W side.