Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - May 8, 2023 - Bid

Question:  

Three spades went down 3.  How should the hand be bid?

Mark:

East has made a highly preemptive bid with a hand that just doesn't fit that. The only thing that fits is the vulnerability, but that's not enough reason to wildly throw a monkey wrench into the auction. 

  Let's look at what might be valid reasons to throw that monkey wrench.

  A. The bid is highly descriptive and you are genuinely making a constructive attempt to get to a good game. A hand that would fit that could have the 9 points we see here, but distributed as follows: 7 spades to the A,10.9.  Small doubletons in both red suits and the same KQ doubleton of clubs. If you catch partner even with as little as 1 spade, you'd have an 8 card major suit fit. The singleton might even be an honor. If the hand happens to belong to the opponents, your small minus could be a favorable score. 

  B. You think it's highly probable the opponents can make a game if given room to explore and find their likely spot. If that's true and you go down that same 3, even doubled, that is a favorable result compared to the vulnerable game, assuming the vulnerable game will be bid and made at other tables. (-500 vs. -600 or-620). 

  As you can see, and East should see, even just looking at those 13 cards, neither condition A nor B has a significant likelihood of materializing. Unless West is a wild bidder, there should be some value for them to enter the auction. That means, based on the auction so far, that the 2 sides have about the same strength. If partner has spade help for you, you can safely buy the hand at a level that won't hurt much and the opponents, if they compete, may have to a level where they will be set.  Another consideration is the singleton in partner's overcall suit. That normally bodes well for defense and poorly for offense.

  How should the auction go? The first 3 bids (1 C, 1 D, 1NT) are very reasonable. I tend to trust vulnerable opponents to bid rationally, so the 1NT should tell you that they are likely in a good place. In an experienced E-W partnership, both partners would know that E can't have a useful penalty double of 1NT. A double by E at that point would show both majors. W will be delighted to bid hearts.

  Here's my ideal sequence: P-1C-1D-1NT- Dbl-P-2H-3C-P(E has no extra values beyond what was shown by the double.) P- 3H, all pass. It's hard to know just how the play will go. Typical average play and defense will often make 3 hearts. 3 clubs, if it stays there, will usually go down 1. -100 is better than -110 or -140.