Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - February 19, 2024 - Michaels Cuebid

 

Question: East's 2D was a Michaels cue bid. How should West respond to the Dbl by South - 2H to support five promised cards for a fit or longest suit (3C)? Also, are 5+ cards ALWAYS promised in the other suits with a Michaels cue bid?

Mark:

I don't know if west understood the 2 D bid, which (correctly in most modern bidding systems) shows both majors. At this vulnerability it usually shows at least 5 in each major, but a very nice 5 card suit and a pretty nice 4 cards in the other is acceptable. 

In long ago bygone days that 2 diamond cue bid used to show great strength with any distribution, too strong for merely a takeout double. If West understands the now standard meaning of 2 diamonds, the clear bid is 2 hearts after South doubles or passes. It says the same thing: "Partner, of your two suits, I prefer hearts over spades. This doesn't necessarily show 3 (or even 2) hearts. W was given a choice of only 2 suits. To bid  3 clubs, W should be very short in both majors and have about 7 nice clubs. Even if both majors are equal, say 2-2, W needs to pick one. 

Now you can see why making the Michaels bid with only 4 cards in one of the majors is risky, especially vulnerable. I love to live dangerously, but that 2 diamond bid is borderline even for me. The 3 club bid by W forced E to retreat to 3 hearts. N-S could have started doubling and it would have been a disaster for E-W. Even down 1, the best case scenario is -200. Now E-W might escape for -100. N-S can make a few clubs even with the foul 5-0 break, so e-W -100 could be above average. It's a hard hand to predict. +90 at 1NT by South is probably the limit as it happens, at least if E advertises good hearts. Any NT contract above 1 by North will be doomed, because E has such an obvious heart lead.

  Here's a possible auction:

N                           E.                          S.                                    W

1C or D.                1H.                    Dbl (4 spades, OK hand).   2 hearts( simple raise, 3+)

 

P (nothing extra).   P (ditto)            3 C if N opened 1C)             P

                                                         P if N opened 1D.)

P                            P

Weekly Hand Analysis - Vic Johnson - February 19, 2024 - Take out Double

 

Question:  Should W bid Clubs or Hearts after partner's T/O double?

Vic:

Short Answer #1: I don't know how an expert would answer that question. 

Short Answer #2: If I were holding the West hand, playing with one of my regular partners, I would bid hearts. 

Explanation (Answer #2)

 When partner makes a TO DBL, it is reasonable to expect they have "tolerance" in the unbid suits. Tolerance is a length requirement. Ideal tolerance is at least 4 cards. 

 But in bridge it is often to your advantage to bid on with hands that are less than ideal. Given that reality, partnerships vary widely on their standards for tolerance. My partners & I are much more likely to bend tolerance standards for minor suits than major suits.

 I would consequently be reasonably confident that partner in the above auction had 4+ cards in both hearts & spades. I would be nowhere near as confident they had 4+ clubs. On the other hand, even if they only had 2 clubs we would have a golden fit in that suit.

 Considering that major suits score better than minor suits, I would go with hearts. Whether an expert would criticize me for that or not, I am uncertain.

 My hand analyzer tells me EW deserve to make 5H or 4S or 5C. Their NS opponents deserve to make 2D.

 Ain't bridge a great game?

Weekly Hand Analysis - Rich Nordeng - February 19, 2024- Jump Shift

 

Question: Should W bid after partner's jump shift?

Rich:

Before answering whether West should bid over 4C, let’s evaluate East’s bidding. Certainly the 1 Heart bid is correct. South bids 2 Diamonds and it goes Pass, Pass back to East. How good is East’s hand now?

Answer: good but not great. South has shown diamonds and values, so East’s QD is probably not useful. The heart suit is decent, but is missing the A, K and J. The KS is singleton and hence vulnerable unless partner has the ace. The distribution is not extraordinary. In short, East has about six losers. And no reason at this point to think partner can cover any of them.  East’s jump shift to 4C is a huge overbid. Moreover, it misstates the distribution. A jump in clubs here my should show at least five clubs. Altogether East should be showing ten or more cards in hearts and clubs with power concentrated in those two suits. East should be showing a hand with approximately four losers. 

If East had the hand shown by the jump shift, West would have a close choice between Pass or 5 Clubs. I think I would bid 5 Clubs, hoping partner has something like AKxxxx of Hearts and AKxxx of Clubs with two side suit losers. 

With the actual East hand I think the best bid at your second turn is two Hearts.

P.S. On second thought, I think West probably should pass over the jump shift to 4 Clubs on the theory that if partner can make eleven tricks opposite my hand they probably would have opened Two Clubs.

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - February 12, 2024 - Opening Bid

 

Question:  Should S have opened the bidding at 1NT instead of 1C?

Mark:

Yes! This is a classic 1NT opening. The actual thing that happened, North bidding 1 spade, shows why failing to open 1NT becomes a problem, one that could have been predicted. Now South has a choice of misleading bids, each of which can trap North into going too low or too high. 

  What are South's next options after 1 spade? 1NT ( the actual bid) promises a balanced hand with no more than 14 points. 2NT shows at least 18 points. Both these bids are well wide of the mark. Raising spades is an option, but at the point that partner bids 1 spade there's no way to know that North has anything more than 4 low spades. If you jump to 3 spades initially, you convey the right strength but the wrong length and you could be too high already if partner is at a minimum of both length and strength. 

  In the actual auction, after N bids 2 spades and South raises to 3, North has a tough choice. South has promised a full 14 HCP (remember that the earlier bidding has limited South's points) 2 or 3 spades (Yes, it could be 2 with an honor, since you now know N has 6 of them). Does N have enough to go 4 anyway? I think so, but it's close. That's why if I had to sit in suddenly for South after being handed my first 2 bids, I'd jump to 4 spades. As I lay down the dummy I'd say "Partner, my bidding may be reckless, but this is how highly I think of your play." 4 spades is a slight overbid for South, but not by as much as 3 spades is an underbid. The difference is one huge card on this auction, which carries no high card points but a good probability of being worth an extra trick in the play, the spade 10!

  Re- evaluating the playing potential of a hand is a pretty advanced skill, but you can't advance very far if you can't do it, or give up even trying. 

  As in practically every bidding analysis I submit, I will delve into the play, because the bidding is no more than a systematic and dynamic estimate of what will happen in the play. In this case, the odds heavily favor getting to 4 spades, no less, no more. As it happens, an extremely lucky distribution makes it possible to make 6 spades! At the opposite end of the spectrum, if you got the most unlucky distribution, you'd be undeservedly rewarded for stopping in a part- score. 

Weekly Hand Analysis - Vic Johnson - February 12, 2024 - Opening Bid

 

Question: Could E bid NT instead of diamonds after West's jump shift?

Vic:

Yes, East could have bid 1NT instead of 2D.  

East has 7 HCPs, all "Quacks". The good news is three of the Quacks are supported & the hand also has three nice spot cards. I would consider it to be a reasonably solid 7 HCPs.

 Bidding 1NT would have had the advantage of capping their point count at 10, but the disadvantage of not showing their impressive diamond support. East has a right to assume a total of nine diamonds between the two hands.

 Bidding 2D promised at least 4 diamonds, but did not cap the point count at Ten. Both bids deny a 4-card major. So flip a coin. I like the 2D bid.

 The 2D bid left West with a hard hand to describe. I think West did well to bid spades. But there was no reason to jump shift to 3S. In fact, there was a good reason not to.

 A bid of 2S would be a Reverse which would promise that spades were shorter than diamonds (most likely 5 diamonds - 4 spades). That is not true in this case, but not a lie that is likely to cause problems. Because 2S is a Reverse, it would also promise an extra value hand (17+ HCPs) which West was obviously eager to do.

 A bid of 3S is a "Jump Reverse", a nonsense bid in terms of showing a strong hand. An experienced player would probably interpret 3S as a Splinter Bid in support of diamonds.

 Over any spade bid they understood to be natural, East would once again have the option to bid NT (lowest available level) or diamonds (lowest available level). Once again, I like diamonds which would be the safer of the two bids. West should pass 4D (they have finished describing their hand & should trust East to set the contract).

 Turns out EW deserve to take eight tricks in NT & ten tricks in Diamonds. They deserve to be down one if they bid to game in either strain.

 Ain't bridge a great game?

Weekly Hand Analysis - Rich Nordeng - February 12, 2024 - Bid

 

Question: Could/Should N/S bid/play this hand in NT instead of Spades?

Rich:

I think N is too good to bid just 4C over partner’s 2C. I suggest a cue bid of 2D, which normally suggests a strong hand with club support. Over North’s 2D South should bid 2NT if he has a Diamond stopper. When, as here, South has no D stopper, he may bid H or S to show a stopper in the suit bid. Without any stoppers, South rebids 3C. Now North, knowing there is no spade stopper, should bid 5C. South figures to have eleven tricks with as little as 6 good clubs and three small spades. On this hand South also has the D queen and thus makes twelve tricks.

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - February 5, 2024 - Bid

 

Question: Should E bid 3NT?

Mark:

It's always a challenge to bid a game after an opponent has opened the bidding. In this case, the combined high card points of E and W add up to 26, which we all know is in a range that usually makes a game in NT or if there happens to be an 8 card major suit fit. The exception is when the opponents have a suit that can be run before 9 tricks are secured. 

  In this case, East made a bid that describes the hand perfectly,after partner made a reopening double. It says "I have about 10 points and a spade stopper, balanced hand." Remember that East's bid of 2NT is a "free" bid. Since N made a further bid, E was no longer required to bid, so E's bid of 2NT shows a decent hand with a definite spade stopper. Now, back to West:

  You have 16 high card points (your original reopening double didn't necessarily promise so much). Add that to what your partner promised and you come to between 25 and 27. I can understand downgrading because the singleton spade king in the opponent's suit doesn't pull its weight. However, East's free bid should be reassuring that the spade K is not wasted. I would bid 3NT with the W hand immediately after my partner's 2NT bid. I wouldn't wait for N to rescue me by keeping the bidding open. North's bid of 3 spades is pretty aggressive after partner keeps passing. 3 spades can be doubled and set at least 2. 

  Having said all that, the fact that 9 tricks are always there for E-W after a spade lead is very lucky. In fact, at an all- expert table 3NT will be bid every time and will go down much of the time. Do you see why? 4 club tricks are needed to make the game. When you see all 4 hands you know the club suit is breaking 3-3 with the club finesse working. At a non- expert table, N probably doesn't throw the club Q after the J is finessed successfully, but throws the 10 instead. E has no trouble after that. A strong N player throws the Q as the K is cashed. Now, after the bidding has suggested an unbalanced hand, a 3-3 break becomes less likely and declarer could well think that South more likely has 4 clubs to the 10, finesse the 9 and N has a total of 5 tricks: 2 spades, 2 hearts and the club. 

  Should E re- calculate the likelihood of a 3-3 break in clubs after seeing that N has a void in diamonds? Possibly so, but the math is very close. If E is an expert and N is an intermediate player that has learned about the OBLIGATORY FALSECARD (look it up and try to acquire it), but E doesn't know N is capable of it, then E goes down every time as long as N-S hold and play their hands carefully and without revealing breaks in tempo.

  Every week I get a bidding question and my answer delves a lot into the play of the hand. It's important to know that bidding always attempts to gauge what will happen in the play. As you advance in your knowledge of bidding and play, you want to picture how the play will go as you evaluate (and re-evaluate) your hand and your bidding strategy during the auction.  

Weekly Hand Analysis - Vic Johnson - February 5, 2024 - Slam

 

Question:  Is there anyway to bid Slam?

Vic:

Of course. All you have to do is bid six of something.

 I will rephrase the Question: "Is there a good way to explore for slam?"

 One way for East to explore for slam would have been to bid 4NT (Blackwood) on their second chance to call. Assuming EW are playing Standard Blackwood, West should respond 5D (promising only 1 of the 2 Aces East is missing). 

 Missing one Ace + not knowing if West has the spade Queen + plus the red flag warning of their worthless doubleton in diamonds, I would encourage East to subsequently end the auction at 5S.

 I get the impression EW might have made slam. But they did not deserve to. The defenders deserve two diamond tricks. But if the defenders do not lead diamonds, they will not get those two diamond tricks. In fact they will not get any tricks at all.

 It is reasonable to imagine most North will lead the club Queen. That means this hand will probably reward the EW players who bid a slam that deserves to be set.

 Ain't bridge a great game?

Toe Operation - Friday, January 12, 2024

 

[Editor’s Note:

 

I am sitting in my recliner on Saturday January 13, a day after my left toe surgery.  I am incapable of doing many things I should be doing, such as blowing snow from our foot of snow which fell yesterday and today.  I decided to write a story about what transpired yesterday as a way to stave off boredom for me and promote boredom for reading this story. ]

 

A scheduler from UW Health called on the morning of Thursday, January 11th  to acquire the information UW Health needed for the surgery the next day.  I thought she may be calling to cancel the surgery because of the snowstorm which was forecast for Madison on Friday and Saturday

 

“Hi, I am calling to remind you of your surgery tomorrow on your left toe.  Be at the UW Hospital East at 6:00 a.m.”

 

“Thanks, I will be there.  If you look at the weather forecast there is a predication of large amounts of snow tomorrow and Saturday.  Any chance the surgery will be delayed?”

 

“No.  We never delay surgeries.  It will go on as scheduled. Any other questions?”

 

The snowstorm was supposed to be the worst in years.  I wondered if they kept to their schedule when people driving to the hospital went into the ditch because of the road conditions.

 

UW Health did not want a stinky patient. So they gave me a body wash with a hibiscus fragrance.  The instructions were specific.  Take a shower and get wet.  Turn off the shower.  Apply the body wash with a clean washcloth to all parts of the body.  Stand in the shower and sing the birthday song twice to yourself or other people with in shouting distance.  Start the shower.  Rinse the body wash off. Repeat.  You needed to do this before you go to bed the day before the operation and the morning of the day of the operation.

 

I complied with the requirements.  I smelled like hibiscus before I went to bed and smelled like hibiscus after I rolled out bleary-eyed out of bed at 4:00 a.m. on January 12th and took my obligatory hibiscus shower.

 

To get to the UW - East from our house should take about 30 minutes going on the Beltline, I-39, American Parkway, turning left at the first stoplight on American Parkway, and then driving to the hospital.  As we arose at 4:00 a.m. it started snowing.  We decided it may take longer and left at 5:15 a.m. We packed a snow shovel and extra emergency supplies into the car in the case we ran into the ditch.  We also brought along my wooden crutches for walking after the surgery. (My wooden crutches probably aren’t made anymore so I limp around with classic crutches.)

 

We entered the Beltline off of Verona Road.  The Beltline was sort of navigable.  Snow obliterated the lane markers. The snow increased in intensity and the road became increasingly slippery.

 

We traveled from our house to the hospital going between 35 and 45 miles per hour. I kept to the far right lane as much as possible. I told Jean, “This is just insanity driving through a raging snowstorm to get to a hospital for elective surgery”.

 

We had people whizzing past us going at 60 to 70 miles per hour.  I guess they did not recognize it was snowing.  We arrived at the hospital at 5:58 a.m. 

 

At the hospital, we checked in and sat down.  Five minutes later a nurse came to retrieve us and ushered us into Room 19. Our arrival started the ball rolling.  We would encounter five different nurses (two with the same first name, Lindsay), three anesthesiologists, and the surgeon, Dr. Kurt Rongstad. (I played bridge with his mother online.  She showed no mercy for me and my partner.)

 

Two of the anesthesiologists belonged to a “block” team.  They were tasked with numbing the left foot before the operation.  UW Health appears to have multiple teams and I asked if they huddled and called plays. One of the anesthesiologists said they huddle but they have yet to call a play.

 

My preparation for the operation included placing an IV port in my right hand, getting dressed in hospital gear, and waiting until 8:00 a.m. The hospital attire included paper underwear and a paper gown.  The paper gown had a paper inner gown with a port.  If you became cold while waiting for the surgery, Room 19 had a plastic tube with hot air which could be attached to the gown to keep you warm.  I had the warm tube next to me in bed.  I liked it being next to me and not a part of my attire.

 

Promptly at 7:55 a.m., people came into the room and I was wheeled into the operating room.  I was told on Thursday by the scheduler that I would be semi-conscious during surgery.  I hoped that was not the case. The anesthesiologist then attached something to the IV, I closed my eyes,  and the operation began.  If I was semi-conscious. I never knew it and I woke up 90 minutes later back in Room 19.

 

Dr. Rongstad called Jean after performing the operation.  He said my hammertoe was stubborn and it took them awhile to get it straightened out. But they were successful.

 

I woke up in Room 19 at 9:30 a.m. with my hospital attire, a bandaged left foot and a boot on the left foot. After 30 minutes, one of the nurses came in, told me to get dressed in my regular clothes. Me and my crutches were then brought out to the front in a wheelchair while Jean unburied the car from the snow.

 

I was loaded into the front seat of the car and then Jean drove back home.  The snow was falling heavily.  The only difference between arriving and leaving the hospital was it was now light.  Jean drove as I did, traveling between 30 and 45 miles per hour.  The same people or people like them were still zooming along the Beltline.  We were two miles from our exit when traffic stopped and the traffic did not move for 15 minutes.  We made it back to the house by 11:15 a.m. in one piece.

 

My foot should be healed six to eight weeks from today. I am supposed to sit in a recliner with my foot at a level above my heart. I was told it would heal quicker when the foot’s level is above the heart level. I am not sure when the extreme foot and leg pain will alleviate.  I hope soon.

 

Me, my boot, and my crutches will be in play all of this time.  I hope to play bridge online, read, and sleep.  It should be a boring six to eight weeks.

 

I’ve had a lot of leg operations over my life. I remember the leg operations in grade school and high school were performed at Madison General Hospital (now Meriter) required at least a 3 day stay.  I had my hammertoe fixed and was back home in the same morning. Amazing how healthcare has changed in 50 years.