Hand Analysis - Vic Johnson - October 25, 2021 - Go for game with less than 26 HCPs?

Question: Most people make 4 hearts on this hand.  For this hand, West had 10 points and 3 trump.  East had 14 points plus 1 length point.  The total of 25 points is under 26 points for a game.  Should you always bid your hand according to the points or assume an extra point based on the heart suit and go for game?

Vic:

High card points (HCPs) are universally accepted as the starting point for hand evaluation. But they are the starting point ONLY & absolutely NOT a criterion that demands rigid adherence. 

If you were dealt all 13 cards of the same suit, you could make grand slam in that suit with your 10 HCPs hand. Ya think there might be a message there? The odds of that happening must be astronomical, but I would be shocked if it never has. I had a bridge playing Aunt who was once dealt 12 of the 13 spades. In her hyper excited state she bid 6NT instead of 6S & never took a trick, because she was of course not on lead & spades never got led. 

After determining HCPs, there are two other aspects of hand evaluation you should routinely be doing. One is Quick Tricks, the other is  Loser Count. If you do not know how to evaluate your hand for these two criteria, I would encourage you to learn how ASAP. And if you do know how, but are routinely neglecting them, you are blowing off a major bidding tool. In addition to Quick Tricks & Losers there are numerous other aspects of hand evaluation that can either compliment or diminish the importance of point count.  

On the hand shown it looks to me like EW deserve to make 4H, although I believe many EW would not. I see no reason, however, for EW to bid to 4H. In fact, the only problem I have with the auction is the raise to 3H by East . Holding the East hand, I would Pass 2H, unless the auction became competitive.  

It is true that East has 1 length point. It is also true that many experienced players count the value of a singleton King (diamonds in this case) as 2 points not 3 points. Baring specific partnership agreements to the contrary, the 2H bid by west could promise as few as 6 HCPs & only 3 card heart support. East has no more than the standard opening hand they promised with their first bid. East also has 7 Losers (standard) & only 1.5 Quick Tricks (substandard). I see no compelling reason for East to raise to 3H. When they do so, they are promising extra values that they do not have.

 Is it shocking that a hand with less than 26 points might deserve to make game? Not in the least. I see hands on a regular basis with less than 26 points that are cold not only for game but for slam. Trying to identify these hands is what keeps the experts awake at night. Ain’t bridge a great game?