Tuesday, November 1, 2022

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - November 7, 2022 - Club Opening

 

Question

S has made a short club opening bid and partner has responded with a 4-card major. E has 15 HCP with a flat hand and contemplated bidding 1NT but is uncomfortable with the lack of a S stopper and passes,

Should E have bid something, if so, what? Also with E passing, should S have bid 2H instead of 1S?

Mark:

First, on the subject of overcalling 1 NT with the East hand. Generally, I wouldn't recommend it. Both opponents have bid, so at best your side has half the points in the deck and the opponents have the other half. In that best- case scenario, it's a tossup whether you do better by passing or bidding. What if it isn't the best case? Neither opponent has indicated a minimum, so the 15 points in your (East) hand could be pretty much all for your side. That could well mean the opponents will know they have enough points to double and beat you at least 300 while unable to bid and make a game. Not only that, but if the opponents bid at the 2 level, as well they might here, you might supply the information to help them play the hand to their best advantage. Having said that, if you are feeling adventurous, this is the vulnerability where you might land on your feet. going minus 50 or minus 100 when the opponents could make 110 is very good at duplicate. if the opponents have the missing 25 points, other N-S pairs might bid and make 3NT for 600 points. If they double you and take the same 9 tricks, that's only 500 points. It's living dangerously, but good things tend to happen for the enterprising, but not for the reckless. This case is squarely on the border between enterprising and reckless if you bid 1NT. I tend to be enterprising, but this one I would pass. As it happens, N-S have made an error, playing in a 3-3 "fit" It's hard to know how the play will go, but careful defense will defeat 1 spade no matter the opening lead. That's worth at least 100 points, which is better than the best- case 90 you might make at 1NT. 

  Now for the N-S bidding: Many players will open the South hand 1 NT and that will surely be the final contract. Careful defense usually defeats 1NT for a good E-W score. South got on the path to the best realistic contract, 2 hearts. 2 hearts can be defeated with perfect defense in this case, but more often it will make. South promises 4 spades by bidding 1 spade. Even the beautiful AK and Q don't make up for the lack of a 4th spade. Moreover, even if you had a 4th spade with the AKQ, the bid of 1 spade denies 4 hearts in this auction.  You need to let partner know about the 8 card major suit fit. If there's any further bidding and you later raise hearts, partner should assume you have only 3 of them.

  There's one feature of this hand that is a very advanced concept, far beyond the scope of this discussion, but some readers might enjoy it. It's rare for any player to find this defensive coup in actual play at the table, but it makes for good newspaper articles. It's called a "surrounding play." If east attacks diamonds by leading the jack, the Q and 10 can both be trapped and E-W score 3 tricks. For this play to work, the diamonds can only be initiated by East and it must start with the J. Take my word for it, or lay out the suit on a table and try to defend the suit some other way. Of course, not playing the suit at all or leading it just once would work in this case, because N-S have mirror distribution and will eventually have to break diamonds.


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