Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - November 21, 2022 - Bid Game?

 


Question: Bid 3S and made 5S.  How should South have bid?  Game?

Mark:

Interesting hand! I'm just guessing at the auction. I'm pretty sure E passed as dealer and S opened 1 spade. W, with the strongest (by point count) hand at the table, probably got into the auction, possibly with an "Unusual" 2NT showing the minors. 

North could pass happily or double. The standard meaning of double in this auction is "I can double and expect to penalize at least 1 of the 2 suits shown, please double if they bid a suit you can penalize."

 Although E-W have equal numbers of both minors, it seems likely they will get to a decent 3 clubs. If South now freely bids 3 hearts, W might try 4 clubs and N has a choice of winning actions. Even a pass might net 300 points. 4 hearts becomes attractive if S bid 3 hearts freely (not forced by partner's double of 2 NT). South is also on the cusp of choosing between bidding 4 H or 3 H. On the one hand, there are only 11 high card points. On the other, that hand could be re- evaluated to about 17 points. 

West's action warns N-S of possible bad breaks in the Majors, which might lessen their enthusiasm for bidding game on a combined 18 HCP. There's an old saying in bridge: "Six- Five Come Alive!" That means the S hand should be extra enthusiastic and bid more than what is intuitive or suggested by HCP. 

In the long run, bold bidders come out ahead. In this case, the friendly position of the defensive queens makes it likely that 5 hearts or 5 spades will make, possibly doubled by W at the 4 level if that player overestimates the value of HCP in a hand with lots of distribution. 

Anyway, I don't fault N-S for stopping in 3 spades, though I would have bid 4H at my 2nd turn to bid if I were South. On a different layout that could be down 800, but having once gone minus 5800 (Don't ask), it still beats my worst result by 5000 points. My gut says to bid up this hand.

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