Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - February 13, 2023 -Double

 

Question: 

E has opened 1S and S passes holding with 5S and 14 HCP. The E/W bid goes down 1. Should S have bid a dbl instead of passing?

Mark:

After E opens 1 spade, what can S do? 

You are not quite strong enough to overcall 1 NT, even though it looks like the favorable position in the opponent's suit could convince some aggressive bidders to stretch and call it 15 points and bid 1NT. Even if W finds the very effective lead of a small heart and E correctly plays the 10(using the rule of 11*) the defenders cash 5 hearts and later get a club, so South still makes 7 tricks for 90 points, right? 

Not so fast. 

Look at the North hand. If your partner has overcalled 1 NT, you expect at least 25 points in the partnership and should bid 3NT, or at least 2NT if you are being ultra- cautious. 

Now S is headed for a minus score after the heart lead. The "problem" is that you have a partner who will probably believe you. Anything you call other than pass after East's opening spade bid is likely to mislead your partner. 

Double is definitely for takeout! When you double 1 of a major suit opening you guarantee 1 of 2 hands: a. 4 cards in the other major, rarely 3 good ones; b. a hand too strong for any other action, usually with a good, long minor suit, or a NT overcall with 19+ points. 

Looking at the South hand, you should predict that partner has 4 or more hearts. They will bid 2 hearts, maybe even 3 with 9 or more points and a decent 4 card suit. 

What will you do then? 

It's the dreaded rebid problem. Always try to project what your partner might do in response to your call and try to avoid a misunderstanding that gets you to the wrong level and/ or wrong suit. 

In this case, it feels a little unsatisfying to pass with such a nice hand, but it's the best action by far. 50 points may seem paltry, but it's likely to be a good result at duplicate. 

Incidentally, the same thing applies when you are all set to open 1 NT with a nice 16 points and suddenly the opponent in front of you opens 1NT. Pass is the best action when an opponent opens what you were about to open. They are likely to struggle in their contract. You don't want to take that struggle off them and put it on yourself. That isn't always the best policy, but much more often than not it is.