Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - December 12, 2022 - Slam Bidding

 

Question: 

E has 17 HCP and opens 1C, W responds 1D. E then bid 1H and bidding proceeds to a game bid of 4S by W. Should E have responded 1 (or 2) NT to indicate stoppers in all suits except D instead of 1H ? This had made 6 NT.

Mark:

Except for 1 quibble, I really like this auction. E-W did very well to go slowly on the 1 level, to find the golden spade fit, not only 8 cards in all, but the optimum 4-4, which often makes an extra trick compared with 5-3 or 6-2. (On 5-3 and 6-2 hands, the shortness in side suits tends to be with the long trumps, which means that ruffing produces no extra tricks and establishment of long side suits by ruffing is not as consistently possible.)

  My quibble is with East's bid of only 2 spades after partner bid 1S. 2S is not only not forcing, it isn't even invitational. The same hand if you substitute the 2 of clubs for the Ace, would be just right for 2 spades. The choice of bids at that point is between an ultra- conservative 3 spades (highly invitational but not forcing to game) and a mildly aggressive 4 spades (showing a re- evaluated 19+ to 22 points in support of spades) 

This hand qualifies on points, but might be downgraded slightly because the shortness is in partner's other suit. The 4S bid would get you to a very good, not great, slam that will usually be made on the actual lie of the cards, regardless of the opening lead or expertise of the declarer. West adds the 13 points to East's (adjusted) 20 and gets to 33, just right for a small slam. You check for aces (to make sure you are not missing two of them) then bid 6. In a typical duplicate game 70% of pairs will be in 4 or 6 spades because of good bidding on the 1 level. Pairs in 4 spades will get more or less an average board, beating everyone in No-trump and losing to the 6S bidders. 

People who get to NT should get a low board. N-S are likely to sense that E-W are close to slam values and will defend passively. If there's an opening Diamond lead from the South against NT, 11 tricks will be the maximum, even with inspired guessing by declarer. If NT is bid from the W, N will have been warned by the bidding not to lead a diamond and now declarer is most unlikely to end with 12 tricks. The pair that made 6 at NT probably did so only due to a defensive error.