Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - March 27, 2023 - Stopped bidding too soon

 

Question:

Another case of bidding that probably stopped too soon. While there are potential transportation problems this hand looks like E/W should probably be in 3 NT. What does one of our gurus think?

Mark:

This is one of the most common challenges for less experienced players and, in fact, a continuation of a theme from last week. 

Your partner has opened the bidding and you have a full opening hand. You must not drop the ball until you reach game. That means you make forcing bids or bid game. Both partners have to be on the same page. Forcing means FORCING. 

However tempted you might be to pass, if your partner has made a forcing bid, you bid. If there doesn't seem to be a bid that describes your hand accurately, you do the best you can with the "smallest lie.". That may mean bidding a short suit when you normally promise more, raising partner with a doubleton, etc. 

The forcing partner should remember that the one being forced may have made an awkward bid. In this case, 2 hearts is not only not forcing, it's not invitational. It promises no more than 10 points (some would say 9) and a 5 or 6 card suit. By that I don't mean you aren't promising more; you are promising that you definitely have less. Even if you were to bid 3 hearts, you haven't fulfilled your responsibility, because you are still promising less than an opening bid, but very close to one (like 11 points including length points). 

The opening bidder is allowed to pass without extras or support for the hearts. In this case, West should bid 4H over 3H, even though 3 H is a mistake. 4H by East at the first chance is acceptable. It will either end the bidding or lead to 6 hearts by East, which is not a sure thing as far as E-W have a right to know. From their point of view, an unlucky position of the club ace, combined with a lucky lead(from their point of view) of a club would get a quick 2 club tricks for the defense. As the actual hand is dealt, 6 hearts will make from either hand, as will 6NT. If the A of clubs isn't taken at trick 1, 13 tricks will be made without even needing the spade finesse. 

The slam is about 60% likely based on the E-W cards alone. 40% of the time at least 1 of the red suits will break badly and then you can't make a slam. If you show the E-W cards alone to an 10 experts and ask what contract they would wish to be in, they would likely split the vote 50-50 between game or slam. Everyone would want to play it from the W side, whether NoTrump or Hearts. That way N-S are unable to take the first 2 tricks no matter what. Even in a very strong field, I estimate that only about 10% will bid a slam on the E-W cards. 100% will at least get to a game. Those who take 13 tricks will score well. Those who take 13 tricks in NT, even if just in game, will have a near top. It takes aggressive bidding to get to slam, and you shouldn't feel you did anything wrong if you don't bid it but make 12 or 13 tricks.