Sunday, October 15, 2023

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - October 23, 2023 - Blackwood

 

Question:  This hand made either 6NT or 6 spades. The people that made the small slam bid 4NT (Blackwood) instead of 4 spades.  How does one determine to go to Blackwood instead of 4 spades with South's hand?

Mark:

There's a lot to sort out in both the bidding and play. First of all, anyone who made only 12 tricks in spades on this hand made a significant error in the play. Even if clubs are led, declarer wins the ace and plays 3 rounds of diamonds to dispose of the club loser in the South hand. The spade finesse can then be taken safely for the overtrick and it works. Anyone who plays the spade ace in hopes of dropping a singleton K rather than the finesse is making a play with a much lower likelihood of success than the normal play. I suppose that if you are playing against a defender that you are very sure will cover the Q of spades when you lead it, you might try the ace and will get a poor result for underestimating the defender. 6NT, if played correctly without a revealing opening J of hearts lead from East or peeking at the East hand, will make only 12 tricks for a poor result compared to a spade contract of the equivalent level.

  Now back to the bidding. The 1 NT opening bid by N isn't most people's cup of tea, but there are good players that will do that rather than open 1 spade. Let's go with the actual bid that was made. Once N shows 15 to 17 HCP, S counts the 17 HCP and should know the partnership has 32. 33 or 34 combined HCP. With average luck, the majority of hands with 33 or 34 HCP will make a slam and 32 point hands will make slam almost half the time, and that's before we consider the possibility of finding a useful fit in a suit, which would add considerably to the chances of a slam. So, the moment N (the describer) opens 1NT, South (the decider) should plan on definitely bidding a slam (mildly aggressive) or strongly inviting slam (very timid with this hand.) Before South even makes a decision between these two options, an attempt should be made to locate a fit in a major suit. It should start with 2 clubs Stayman. Why commit to a spade contract when partner might have 2 spades and 4 hearts? If partner responds with a 4 (or more) card major, it's no longer acceptable to stop short of slam. There's timid and then there's just an outright mistake. Most A players have a convention to show a hand interested in game or slam with 5 cards in 1 major and 4 in the other after partner opens 1NT. If you feel ready for the next step in advancing to that level, look up a convention called Smolen. Most readers of this page aren't ready for that, but I thought I'd mention it. It's a very useful convention. 

  One other very important point to respond to the question that was posed. 4NT is NOT Blackwood after partner opens 1NT, it is an invitation saying "Bid 6 with a maximum (17), pass with a minimum(15) and try to make a good decision with 16. The way to ask for aces after a NT opening is 4 clubs (Gerber). 

  Back to the play. If N finds himself/herself in 6NT after S makes a mistake in the bidding but at least gets to slam, N probably gets a surprise bonus for the slightly eccentric 1NT opening bid. East is likely to lead the J of hearts and is therefore pretty much marked with the 10. Now declarer leads a small diamond to the K, takes the spade finesse and later takes a heart finesse against the 10, scoring 13 tricks and an undeserved top board, assuming they bid 6NT. 


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