Weekly Hand Analysis - Vic Johnson - October 30, 2023 - Double

 

Question:  The Double by West appears to be a penalty double.  The contract went down 1 so the double was successful. What criteria should you use to double above a 3 level?

Vic:

To make a penalty DBL at any level you need reason to believe that between you & partner you can win enough tricks to defeat the contract. 

West has three "Quick Tricks" (also called "Defensive Tricks") in their own hand. Holding the West hand, I would be reasonably confident of actually winning a trick with at least two of them.

 Spades is trump, so the spade Ace is guaranteed to actually take a trick. If one of the opponents is void in clubs, however, the club AK may not take any tricks. 

 Partner (East) passed on their first chance to call. So they have less than an opening hand. On their second chance to call East doubled. So West has a right to expect that East is close to opening hand strength.

 If partner has an opening hand, you have a right to expect they can take three tricks if you end up defending. Close to opening, it would be reasonable to expect two tricks. 

 Two tricks by West added to two tricks by East adds up to four tricks total which puts declarer down one. A penalty DBL is definitely called for.

 My hand analysis program, however, tells me that NS deserve to make their 4S contract. That means there was a way declarer could have played the hand that EW could not have set them.

 Does that mean a penalty DBL was "wrong"? Not in my opinion. But in bridge, making the right call is no guarantee. The right call will not work ALL the time. But it will work MOST of the time.

Ain't bridge a great game?