Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - October 30,, 2023 - Going down 3

 

Question:  This hand went down 3 in 3NT but made it with 3 clubs.  Do you think the bidding was wrong?

Mark:

I think the bidding is a bit aggressive, but not egregiously so. You have 12 points facing 12 points. South was definitely pushy, accepting a game invitation with a hand that was rock bottom minimum for what S had bid so far. North's 2 NT bid was inviting S to bid if S had more than 12 or 13 points. It was not a forcing bid,, so I would have passed 2NT, even though I'm normally a pushy bidder. When N first sees partner's opening bid and RHO overcalling 1 diamond, it's easy to picture both the A and Q of diamonds in the W, thus making the N hand very tempted to jump to game. Now, when E doubles the 2D cuebid, showing some values in diamonds, N becomes a little less confident and makes a game invitation only. 

  Now for the play: With the lead coming from the East, North can make 3NT, but only with the kind of lucky guessing that cn't be expected without peeking at the opponents' cards. Presumably, E leads diamonds. If the diamond Q is led, declarer has a pretty decent chance. The diamond 5 makes it much more difficult. W wins the Ace and returns the suit. North has to guess to play the king, so the diamonds are blocked while declarer works on establishing 9 tricks. The level of play required to make the contract is top expert PLUS lots of lucky guesses. I don't expect our readers to solve the spade suit at the table, but 4 tricks will be made by most experts. Next, declarer must find a way to make 3 clubs and a heart, or 2 clubs and 2 hearts, or 3 hearts 1 club. It's doable but even in the Blue Ribbon Pairs or the Bermuda Bowl I think most declarers go down. If N mis- guesses everything, even without making an actual mistake, I can understand going down 3, trying desperately to make the contract and taking some necessary risks. 

  In summary, it's a bit of bad luck for being pushy in the bidding. If my partners bring back that result in a team game, I wouldn't criticize them. In due time they will balance such results with lucky guesses.