Sunday, October 9, 2022

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - October 17, 2022 - How to attack

 

Question: This hand went down one even though almost everyone made 4 spades.  The lead from west was the 4 of hearts.  How do you determine which suit to attack and in what order based on these hands?

Mark:

Looking at just the north and south hands, it's hard to say whether you'd rather be in 4 hearts or 4 spades. I tend to prefer 4- 4 fits rather than 5-3, if they can be found without distorting the auction. In this case it's very close. After N raises 1 spade to 2, South can make a game try by bidding 3 hearts. North would bid 4 hearts, accepting the game try and suggesting the possibility of switching the choice of trumps from spades to hearts. South could be happy with that.

  Now for the play in 4 spades. The heart lead puts a lot of pressure on declarer. At other tables the lead could have been in clubs or diamonds. A Club lead makes it a little easier than a Heart and a diamond lead makes it very easy. I can understand worrying about a singleton Heart and starting trumps immediately. If West wins the Spade Q and shoots back a Spade, you can no longer ruff the 2 diamonds you need to trump in dummy. You can no longer make the contract after a very normal  and reasonable start. To make 4 spades on this hand if the opponents do everything right, you need to win the opening lead in hand and lead a club to establish entries back and forth. Of course, if it turns out West can ruff Hearts, you go down quickly. On this hand it doesn't matter. What does matter is that neither the D King nor the C Ace are on side, so taking 2 diamond ruffs in dummy is the lucky winning line, since both majors split 3-2 and East holds the doubleton high honor. I'm betting most declarers who made 4S didn't play it perfectly, but probably got help from the defenders. Ironically, in an all- expert field, more than half the declarers would go down at 4 Spades and some unlucky souls could go down 2 if they try the Diamond finesse, which is a reasonable play, but not successful on the actual deal.

 


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