Mark:
I don't see the actual auction, but it's very likely that
the dealer (W) opened 1 NT with 15 HCP and some decent interior cards. The only
other possibility is opening 1 club. I know it's hard to pass with 20 HCP, but
it's the best action. In fact, I predict comfortably that 100% of experts would
pass 1NT. If you put this question to someone claiming to be a bridge expert
and they do anything but pass 1NT, even mention another acceptable possibility,
you can rule them out as an expert. Here's the reasoning: You are likely to
beat 1NT 2 or more tricks for 200 points at this vulnerability, so the
only way to improve on that is to bid and make a game. How many points can your
partner have? Assuming 15 HCP on your right, it leaves a total of 5 (possibly
only 3 or 4) for partner and left hand opponent combined. It's a good plan
to assume that partner has about half the missing points, as is the case here.
That means game is highly unlikely. You can't double 1NT, because partner is
too weak to let it stand, so he will bid and take the opponents out of their
predicament and put your side in probable trouble. If you bid 2NT, the general
meaning of that is a hand extremely long in both minors and partner will bid
his better minor, even if it's a doubleton. Suppose you could, due to a strange
(and not recommended) agreement that it is to play and you can take the
requisite 8 tricks, giving you 120 points, wouldn't you rather have 200 for the
same 8 tricks as righty struggles in 1 NT?
On this hand, some Easts will pass 1NT, grateful to
land anywhere un- doubled. They might transfer to 2 Hearts, which I still pass
and end up with 200 to 300 points on defense. If you passed 1 NT and 2H without
a lot of obvious discomfort, they might play the hand in a way that gives you
extra tricks. The obvious opening lead of the DQ gives away nothing and puts
you on track to take 7 or 8 tricks on defense of 2Hearts.
No comments:
Post a Comment