Weekly Hand Analysis - Vic Johnson - October 17, 2022 - Picking a suit

Question:  This hand went down 1 even though most people made the bid.  West led the 2 of spades.  Based on this hand, how do you decide which suit to attack first, second, etc.?

Vic:

There are three basic methods for playing a bridge hand. Once the opening lead hits the table, the first thing Declarer needs to decide is which method they are going to use.  

More often than not, the method I find most appropriate for a suit contract is the Master Hand Method. That is the method I suggest here. 

South, the hand with the most trump, should be Declarer's choice for the Master Hand. That makes North the Ruffing Hand. The Ruffing Hand functions as a resource to fix Master Hand losers (by ruffing or whatever). 

South has a spade loser for the missing spade Ace. Turns out, however, that the Ruffing Hand has the spade Ace - loser fixed. 

South has a heart loser for the missing heart King. Turns out, however, that the Ruffing Hand has the heart King - loser fixed.

South has a diamond loser, because their diamond singleton is not the Ace plus three club losers for the missing club Ace/King/Queen. The Ruffing Hand does not have any of those four cards. Unless there is another way to fix at least one of those four losers, Declarer deserves to go down one trick.

 South cannot ruff any of those four losers, because the Ruffing Hand is not shorter in either diamonds or clubs. If clubs split 3-3, South could promote their 4th club into a winner, but not until it is too late.

 The only hope for South is to be able to discard one of those four losers on the 4th Ruffing Hand spade. With that goal in mind I can now answer the question asked.

 Declarer should take the first trick in their hand (the short side) with spade King. Given that ruffing is not a strategy, the first suit declarer should attack is hearts. Declarer needs to pull trump which in this case proves possible in two tricks. 

Next declarer should attack spades. Win a second spade trick in hand with spade queen. Lead spade seven & if West plays low (they should), finesse north spade Nine. Now win spade Ace, discarding south diamond King.  

There are now only three losers remaining in the Master Hand, making 4H.