Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - November 13, 2023 - Take out Double?

 

Question:  What is South's bid and why should they make that bid?

Mark:

Let's do this a little differently this time. You begin to consider your possible bids and I'll give you a minute or two to do that. 

If you paused for 30 seconds and have a ready answer, you may not have spent enough time. Let's consider the 1st question of cooperative bidding. Are you the describer or decider? Hopefully you agree that if West and North made normal calls for the hands they hold, both are very descriptive. West holds 7 spades, probably headed by the A, likely AJ10.... Partner has short spades, most likely a singleton, at least 12 high card points, almost certainly 4 or 5hearts. That's the basic, typical hand for North, but there is one other major possibility. North could have a hand with a long suit, possibly a secondary suit and a hand too strong for just an overcall. That's unlikely, given the very big hand you have. 

  You have to decide. It's your job. You'd love to give partner a chance to show a stronger than minimum hand that could land a slam, but West has taken up so much bidding room that you may miss a very good slam. That's the opponents' job and you should focus on the most likely thing, which is you almost surely have game and you need to bid it. The obvious bid is 3NT. You have spades double stopped unless E-W have the perfect defensive holding, which is W leads the spade jack and E has at least 2 spades and a quick entry in clubs and you can't take 9 tricks after winning a spade. Even then, you simply duck the opening spade and E probably doesn't have a third one to lead after getting the club. 

  If North makes any move but pass after you bid 3NT, it shows more than a minimum hand and it's your job, as the decider, to get your side to slam. 

  Nothing has been said about vulnerability. If E-W are vulnerable and you are not, at duplicate you probably need only 500 for a top or near top. You could consider converting the takeout double to penalty. Leave that kind of move to the experts when you have 3 trumps. Think about it more if you have 4 with a high honor. On the other hand, if you are vulnerable and they are not and you are playing with a sound partner who is watching the vulnerability and is willing to put you on the 4 level, potentially to be slaughtered if you have nothing, you should be going to slam, in NT, not a suit because of the risk of a spade ruff by East.

  Whatever you do, DO NOT bid 4 diamonds with your hand after the double. You are the decider and you are telling partner that you have a very bad hand with diamonds as your best suit outside of spades. More likely that not, you will be declarer in a part- score contract when game is cold and slam is possible. You should not expect partner to read your mind.