Friday, November 10, 2023

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - November 27, 2023 - Preempt

 

Question

N has opened with  an undisciplined weak 2S. S has opening count and 3 spades. What is needed to raise a weak 2 bid to game?

 Mark:

This is a common situation and I recommend this rule highly. If your partner has opened a weak 2 bid in a major suit, add your high- card points to the number of cards in the opened suit. If it's less than 16 total, pass; you're done for now. The only exception is this: If you have 4 cards(or more)  in the suit and a really weak hand, consider jumping to game, not in expectation of making it, but as an advance sacrifice, since the opponents are sure to have a game and possibly a slam. 

  Now for the rest of THE RULE OF 16: If your HCP + cards in the suit = 16 or 17, invite game by bidding 3. With 18 to 20 BID GAME NOW. With 21 plus, consider a jump shift to suggest a possible slam.

  In this case, our "rule of 16 points" are 16. I would invite game, bidding 3 spades. How should North  act? I would decline the invitation. The N hand is really minimum for a 1st position weak 2 at unfavorable vulnerability. I wouldn't characterize it as undisciplined, just quite optimistic. Let's call it "enterprising." The invitation asks:  in the range of possible strengths of the original bid are you at the upper or lower end. We can all agree it's the lower, hence you pass.

  I'm guessing that 10 tricks were made and N-S might have thought they made a mistake. No, it's the coincidence of the location and distribution of the E-W cards, combined with the fact that the best defense is difficult, that might allow N-S to get 10 tricks. An opening club lead or a club shift after W wins trick 1, will hold the contract to 9 tricks. Careless play might even result in making only 8 tricks. The east holding makes it unlikely anyone would lead a club. A heart lead from E makes sure that declarer will lose only 1 heart. After taking the A of hearts, an expert West would normally lead a club, so the club losers in the North hand can't all be discarded on diamonds.

  The main tip is to learn the Rule of 16 over partner's opening weak 2. Another very important tip is that there is often confusion when one partner opens a weak 2 and responder bids a second suit. Some players play that a new suit is absolutely forcing and doesn't deny support in partner's suit. Other players play that a new suit indicates a very poor fit for opener's suit and no desire to explore a game. Both approaches are favored by many good players. It's critical that both partners discuss it and are on the same page. The situation is so common that failing to keep it straight can cost you many march points or IMPs. 

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