Sunday, December 10, 2023

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - January 1, 2024 - Game Bid



 




Question: West made 5C.  How should a game bid be considered?

Mark:

Just because a given number of tricks are taken at the table, doesn't mean that is a normal, predictable result. In fact, with solid defense, which is admittedly hard, E-W should only make 10 tricks on this hand, even with the lucky 2-2 break in trumps but the unlucky position (for E-W) of the major  honors. A mistake was probably made by the defenders. All players, even world champions, make mistakes. E-W have a total of 25 points, often enough to make 9 tricks at NT and, with a good fit, 10 tricks in a suit, as here. After E makes the rather aggressive bid of 1 spade, then raises Wests non- forcing 2 clubs to 3 (This is a clear overbid) W should bid 3NT and will probably make it. I say this even though N-S can take the first 9 tricks at NT. If N leads any major suit card other than the spade ace (normally an awful lead), W can scamper home with 9 tricks. In a high level tournament, +150 for E-W is probably above average. 

  The bidding should go like this: W: 1club N: 1H E: Dbl (just about a perfect hand for negative dbl) S pass (some pesky but commonly successful S players would raise to 2H because the vulnerability is favorable.W could bid NT with the heart stopper(if hearts are going to be led from the north). Since that is likely to induce a heart lead from N, pesky South players will be punished by drawing a heart lead and a score of -150 or -600. 


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