Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - December 25, 2023 - Lead

 

Question:  The "rules" say never under lead an Ace in a suit contract and don't lead an unsupported Ace.  What should West lead and why?

Mark:

Just to make it clear, leading any of the opening leader's 13 cards is legal within the rules. The "rules" are just suggestions, based on what usually works. It's true that underleading an ace in a non- trump suit against a trump contract is rarely a good idea and best left to the experts and they very rarely do it. Leading an unsupported ace in a side suit is usually not a good idea, though it isn't as rare as the underlead. On this hand the "rules" are right, though in practice it should make no difference. West has a safe lead of a trump. It can't cost and might help. Good players with the West hand would only lead a small spade if it fell out of their hand by accident. On a day when that happens, they should buy a lottery ticket. After a small spade lead, unless South peeked at the opponents' hands, there would be no rational reason to play the king. It's about 100 times more likely that W led from the queen. Thus, South would play small from dummy, hoping to force the ace from East, holding it to just 1 spade loser and guaranteeing the contract. As long as that unlikely lead was made, it seems like 9 tricks is the inevitable result at 3 hearts, making South's choice of opening 2 hearts more successful than the 99.9% of serious bridge players who would open that hand 4 hearts. 

  Let's look at the bidding for a moment. Several bids were made that I disagree with. An opening bid of 2 hearts should be made with 6 hearts, very rarely 7 if vulnerable. An 8 card suit, especially of that quality should be opened 4. If that suit were a minor and I'm not vulnerable I probably open 5. We tend to be justifiably a little frisky, not vulnerable in 3rd seat. Even a 5 card suit is opened with a 2 bid occasionally in that position, but never 8.

  East's takeout double in the passout seat over 2 hearts is aggressive, but I agree with it. I wouldn't fault a pass. 

  With the West hand I would overcall 2 hearts with 2NT. It's borderline and I don't fault the pass. After E doubles for takeout, even though E is an original passed hand, I would bid at least 3 spades, which, incidentally, will be made easily. 4 spades has a good chance with N unable to lead hearts and S unable to get the lead. That's why 4 hearts would have been a good opening bid for S. Yes, it's down one for -50, but you are not -620, as you would be at most tables.