Friday, December 15, 2023

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - January 22, 2024 - Bid

 

Question

Should N have bid 2S or pass?

Mark:

It's a tough decision. 2 diamonds could be a disaster and 2 spades could be a bigger one, vulnerable, no less.

 I would have been tempted to pass 1 NT and hope to take a bunch of diamond tricks on defense, but I would have been wrong to do so on this hand. 

As it happens, 2 spades can be defeated several tricks with "best defense", meaning the defense that happens to work this time. That would involve leading a small spade from KJ96, drawing at least 1 more trump when you get in, then shifting to clubs, never letting the dummy in and collecting a total of 8 tricks for the defense. In real life, East is very tempted to lead the AK of hearts. North ruffs the 2nd and leads ace and a small club, creating a ruffing entry to dummy. With careful further play, 2 spades can be made for a very nice match point result. It's not a mistake to defend this way, it's just unlucky this time. A difference of 3 tricks between a natural lead and a magically effective lead that looks all wrong. The bidding is supposed to represent an estimate of what will happen in the play. The play doesn't always follow the estimated script.

  To answer the original question, If I were South, I'd be defending 1NT. In other words, I'd pass 1NT, but I don't fault the bid of 2 diamonds. If I'm North and my partner bid 2 diamonds, I would bid 2 spades, prepared to apologize if it turned out badly. I'd only have to apologize if E led a trump at trick 1 or 2. That's an extremely unlikely defense.


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