Saturday, March 16, 2024

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - April 8, 2024 - Bid


Mark: 

This is an interesting question. Most players who are likely to read this are still building skills in straightforward, constructive bidding. The East hand isn't strong enough to make a free bid that suggests competing to a higher level at that vulnerability. With limited strength and (minimally) decent support for partner's overcall suit, 3 diamonds is a good bid. High level players visualize the further auction as well as the play of the hand. In a high level game, everyone at the table anticipates that N-S will end in 3 or 4 hearts and that it's unlikely E-W can afford to push higher than 3 hearts. In that case, East can afford to bid 2 spades to set up the best defense against a heart contract. East would know that West will not be carried away, because there just aren't 50 points in the deck. 

On the actual hand it probably doesn't matter. 3 hearts will be bid as expected and will fail by a trick, which is better than allowing 3 diamonds to play. 3 diamonds will be made at 99% of tables with human and probably robot defenders, even though the "double dummy" limit is 8 tricks. Why? Because to achieve holding E-W to 8 tricks, South has to be on lead at trick 2 after N leads a trump and South must find a club shift. Otherwise, 1 of the 2 club losers in the West will disappear on the third spade. Unless N and South are each a 7th son of a 7th son, the defense to prevent 3 diamonds from making will not be found. Note that 3 diamonds is surely going to make, but not 3 spades, even with the friendly 3-3 split. There is no parking spot for a club loser and no avoiding the losers in hearts and diamonds. E-W have to settle for +50 (or +100 if they like to live dangerously.) Needless to say, any E-W or N-S that are allowed to score +110 will get a great match point result. Both sides need to show some gumption to prevent that.

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