Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - May 13, 2024 - Bid

 

Mark:

The purpose of the bidding is to make a JOINTLY educated guess about the outcome of the play. That's why I always analyze the play in some of the plausible contracts that were reached at this table or might have been reached at other tables where they had a chance to bid and play the same hand. A couple of bidding mistakes were made by both sides with the final result favoring E-W based on the actual distribution of cards.

  The first 2 passes (by S then W) are fine. Assuming N-S play weak 2s, North's pass is a mistake. That hand is tailor made for a weak 2 heart bid. Not only the suit, but the vulnerability and bidding position. Last week we discussed preemptive judgment. In 3rd position (Partner and RHO have passed and LHO's strength is unknown) you want to bend over backwards to preempt, especially when not vulnerable. In this case, a 2 heart opening creates a headache for East (That's what you hope to do with a preempt), who should bid 3 diamonds over 2hearts. South then raises to 3 hearts. W should keep passing, so 3 hearts comes back to E who has enough strength to bid 4 clubs, S passing happily, W corrects to 4 diamonds back around to South who will pass or bid 4 hearts as a sacrifice or as an attempt to push E-W higher. 

  Back to the actual auction, I don't quite agree with W bidding 1 spade with that weak a hand when vulnerable. Even if partner can supply a spade fit, E would be likely to fly past the makeable level. You should pass for now and partner will not get excited if you get a chance to mention spades at the 1 level. 

  East has a really good hand even though it is concentrated in the minors and the long suit lacks the high honors. There are 18 high card points (HCP), though you downgrade for the singleton heart Q. bidding only 2 diamonds over partner's 1 spade response is a mistake in that it risks missing a game (which would be a real risk if W actually had the strength for the 1 spade response. E should have bid 2 clubs at that point, which is forcing and descriptive.

  To summarize the end- point: The HCP are evenly divided between the sides. E-W make 4 diamonds with any plausible play and defense. N-S make 3 hearts with any plausible play and defense. Both sides should bid accordingly because of their strength and distribution. E-W might bow out early because of worry over the vulnerability. N-S might (should) bid 4 hearts if necessary because they are not vulnerable and -100 for 4 hearts doubled is still cheaper than -130.