Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - October 23, 2023 - Blackwood

 

Question:  This hand made either 6NT or 6 spades. The people that made the small slam bid 4NT (Blackwood) instead of 4 spades.  How does one determine to go to Blackwood instead of 4 spades with South's hand?

Mark:

There's a lot to sort out in both the bidding and play. First of all, anyone who made only 12 tricks in spades on this hand made a significant error in the play. Even if clubs are led, declarer wins the ace and plays 3 rounds of diamonds to dispose of the club loser in the South hand. The spade finesse can then be taken safely for the overtrick and it works. Anyone who plays the spade ace in hopes of dropping a singleton K rather than the finesse is making a play with a much lower likelihood of success than the normal play. I suppose that if you are playing against a defender that you are very sure will cover the Q of spades when you lead it, you might try the ace and will get a poor result for underestimating the defender. 6NT, if played correctly without a revealing opening J of hearts lead from East or peeking at the East hand, will make only 12 tricks for a poor result compared to a spade contract of the equivalent level.

  Now back to the bidding. The 1 NT opening bid by N isn't most people's cup of tea, but there are good players that will do that rather than open 1 spade. Let's go with the actual bid that was made. Once N shows 15 to 17 HCP, S counts the 17 HCP and should know the partnership has 32. 33 or 34 combined HCP. With average luck, the majority of hands with 33 or 34 HCP will make a slam and 32 point hands will make slam almost half the time, and that's before we consider the possibility of finding a useful fit in a suit, which would add considerably to the chances of a slam. So, the moment N (the describer) opens 1NT, South (the decider) should plan on definitely bidding a slam (mildly aggressive) or strongly inviting slam (very timid with this hand.) Before South even makes a decision between these two options, an attempt should be made to locate a fit in a major suit. It should start with 2 clubs Stayman. Why commit to a spade contract when partner might have 2 spades and 4 hearts? If partner responds with a 4 (or more) card major, it's no longer acceptable to stop short of slam. There's timid and then there's just an outright mistake. Most A players have a convention to show a hand interested in game or slam with 5 cards in 1 major and 4 in the other after partner opens 1NT. If you feel ready for the next step in advancing to that level, look up a convention called Smolen. Most readers of this page aren't ready for that, but I thought I'd mention it. It's a very useful convention. 

  One other very important point to respond to the question that was posed. 4NT is NOT Blackwood after partner opens 1NT, it is an invitation saying "Bid 6 with a maximum (17), pass with a minimum(15) and try to make a good decision with 16. The way to ask for aces after a NT opening is 4 clubs (Gerber). 

  Back to the play. If N finds himself/herself in 6NT after S makes a mistake in the bidding but at least gets to slam, N probably gets a surprise bonus for the slightly eccentric 1NT opening bid. East is likely to lead the J of hearts and is therefore pretty much marked with the 10. Now declarer leads a small diamond to the K, takes the spade finesse and later takes a heart finesse against the 10, scoring 13 tricks and an undeserved top board, assuming they bid 6NT. 

Weekly Hand Analysis - Vic Johnson - October 16, 2023 - Minors

 Question:  Would South be better off in 3NT instead of 5 Clubs?

Vic:

Answer: Only if they would not be upset to lose the first six tricks. If South signs off in 3NT instead of bidding 5C, that is exactly what deserves to happen. 

Versus 3NT in the South, it would be criminal if West did not lead their 4th highest heart (the Eight). Unless East messes up big time, EW will subsequently take six heart tricks off the top. They also deserve a 7th trick for the spade Ace. 

It would also be criminal for South to sign off in 3NT. And if they do, it would be a shame if they did not get the spanking they deserve. The excellent 3H cue bid by North denies a heart stopper & asks South to bid 3NT only if they do have a heart stopper.  

Playing in 3NT, NS deserve to be down three. Playing in 5C, NS deserve to make. 

Ain't bridge a great game?

Weekly Hand Analysis - Glenna Shannahan - October 16, 2023 - Preempt or not to Preempt

 

Question:East preempts and West has a fairly strong hand in hearts.  West knows East has spades but not many points.  Should West bid their hearts instead of passing?

Glenna:  West should pass.

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - October 16, 2023 - Bid

 

Question:  You advocate for being aggressive while bidding.  For this board, most everyone bid 2 Hearts and made it.   The one bid of 4  hearts went down 1.  Is there ever a time in bridge when you can be too aggressive?

Mark:

 I do advocate for bidding aggressively, but what I mean by that is that, when choosing between two reasonable alternatives, I prefer  the more enterprising. 

In this case, North had a choice between passing 3 hearts or bidding 4. I think it's perfectly reasonable to bid 4. 

However, South's bid of 3 hearts was aggressive beyond the bounds of reasonableness for 2 reasons. First, there are only 3 hearts and partner hadn't promised more than 4 little ones with that first heart bid. Moreover, there are only 15 high card points, when a 3 heart raise shows 17 to 19, maybe a really great 16 with extra distribution AND 4 hearts. The normal opening bid for South in this case is 1NT, assuming a 15 to 17 range. From that point on, holding a minimum for the opening 1 NT, South would decline most invitations that ask whether the opening was minimum or maximum. 

One invitation I would definitely accept with the South hand after opening 1NT is if N transferred to 2 hearts, then raised 2 hearts to 3, showing a 6 card (!) suit and about 8 high card points. If South had opened 1NT, North had an opportunity for an aggressive action which was apparently not chosen at the other tables. That would be to bid 2 clubs Stayman, assuming N-S don't play "garbage Stayman" which is aptly named. The standard for 2 clubs normally promises at least 8 points or, with a very aggressive but reasonable stretch, the present 7 point hand.  South would respond 2 diamonds (no 4 card major) and N would bid 2 hearts, showing the aforementioned 8 or 9 points and, by inference, 4 spades and 5 hearts. South should probably pass 2 hearts, but, if feeling super aggressive, could invite, bidding 3 hearts with a minimum but very nice hearts and now with the knowledge that N has 5 of them. N is sub- minimum for the bidding so far and passes the invitation. So, by bidding aggressively but not beyond at both ends of N-S, the final contract is 3 hearts played by North. That's one higher than other tables, but with a fair chance of success. 

Normally, you'd like the contract to be played by the stronger hand, but this time luck favors the aggressive bidding. It's often a mistake to lead a singleton trump, and East is pretty likely to lead the K of spades. When that holds, E has one final chance to hold N-S to 9 tricks, that requires E to shift to the heart at trick 2. From that point on, with careful and fairly difficult defense to find, Only 9 tricks will be made. W has to rise with the Ace when S leads a second round of spades and lead another heart. Any other defense that starts with a high spade lead from E, and declarer can make 4 hearts and E-W are helpless. It does require excellent play, bordering on expert, but sometimes you learn to play like that when you bid like that. 

If E starts with a high spade and next plays the other high spade, or any card but the heart, and the hand becomes cold for 4 hearts. Declarer must not play any hearts, but play for a cross- ruff. You'll note that bidding 3 hearts making 3 is a top board when all the other N-S pairs were held to 8 tricks. Bidding aggressively without going wild doesn't always pay off, but it does more often than not and it should have done this time. I'm willing to bet that E-W didn't find the very difficult defense to defeat 4 hearts, and declarer had a chance for the brilliant play to make it.

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - October 9, 2023 =Game

 

Question:  South did not go to game of 4 spades in this hand because of North's pass in the first round.  What indication does South have to go to game based on the bidding?

Mark:

I'm sure many of you are tired of hearing this, but IT'S A BIDDER'S GAME! Sure, you go down here and there, but most of the time you get good boards if you bid aggressively. Neither North nor South was aggressive enough. Having a 5 card suit where partner opened is huge. When you have a singleton in the suit the opponent has bid, that is very good. Partner's points are likely concentrated in the remaining suits, so it's hard to see failing to take 10 tricks. When you are looking at 2 big cards like the K and Q of spades, those are 2 cards partner doesn't have and could be worried about, so they may be extra cautious. When partner opens 1 of a major and you have 5 cards in that major, not even necessarily honors, and a total of 10 points, you should routinely go to 4. Not only do you usually make it even opposite a minimum opener, but sometimes you preempt the opponents out of finding a good contract of their own. 

  Having said that, I still think South was a little timid not to go to 4. The diamond length tells you that  partner is probably short, you have at most 1 heart to lose. From the South viewpoint 4 spades is only somewhat more than 50% to make. Remember, It's a bidder's game. Even when you should go down in 4 spades (Not the case here) opponents may make a mistake and let you make. Another benefit of bidding on is this: Aggressive contracts build strong play.

Weekly Hand Analysis - Vic Johnson - October 9, 2023 - Game bid

 

Question: The optimum bid for this hand was 3NT.  How does South know to go to 3NT when North passed on the first bid?

Vic:

Turns out 3NT does deserve to make, but it is NOT the optimum bid. The optimum bid award goes to either 4H or 4S, both of which also deserve to make.  

Bidding & making 3NT scores 400 points. Bidding & making 4H or 4S scores 420 points. Pretty meaningless difference in Social Bridge scoring. But could be the difference between a high board & a low board in Duplicate Bridge scoring.  

The 1NT call by North promises a maximum of 10 HCPs. South has a 16 point hand (15 HCPs + 1 Length Point). If North is at their maximum, game is a reasonable possibility.   

Over 1NT South could bid 2NT which would be invitational to game. Essentially, it would ask North to raise to game if they are at the top of their bid & Pass if they are not. Given their singleton diamond (the unbid suit - a likely opening lead), inviting game is definitely a risky decision by North.  

And given that NS have discovered they do not have a golden fit in either major, going to game in either hearts or spades is unlikely. 

I actually think the auction shown above is a very reasonable auction. 

Ain't bridge a great game? 

 

Weekly Hand Analysis - Glenna Shannahan - October 9, 2023 - Second bid

 

Question:  Should East bid H or S at second bid?  Should West accept H or explore with S?

Glenna:

The bidding was perfect— show support with support!!! Congratulations to the pairs who bid perfectly!