Monday, May 22, 2023

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - June 5, 2023 - Slam

 

Question

S has 7D and 6 HCP and opens a “weak 2D”. N has 22 HCP and 4D and invites game with a bid of 4D. The hand made 6D.  Is there anything that N could have done to invite slam?

Mark:

South is a bit of a whimsical bidder, which can be good sometimes and can backfire at other times. Whenever you make a preemptive bid, you make it difficult for whichever side has the likely best and highest contract to bid and make. As a preemptor, you are betting the dominant side is the opponents, which on this hand looks to S like a pretty good bet, but hardly a sure thing with partner not having spoken. 

Some experts would look at the diamond suit as follows: Too long for a weak 2 bid; too weak a suit to open 3 by a dealer, so pass.

 Another expert might be nervous about the quality of the diamonds but hate to give up on pre-emption so would do as south and open only 2 diamonds. 

Most experts would look at the vulnerability and the fact that either opponent and only 1 partner might be holding an excellent hand and open the S hand 3 diamonds. I would do that but that doesn't make it the "correct" bid. 

In this case, 2 diamonds could have worked spectacularly. Most pairs have an asking bid, usually 2NT, to check with partner about specific extra features as well as strength outside the suit. In this case, if asked for a feature, S would bid 3 clubs (A or K) and N could gamble ( a pretty good bet, but not a sure thing) that 6 diamonds will be made and bid it. 

Once South has preempted 2 or 3 diamonds, N is about 99% sure of making 3NT. Think about it. You can count 9 tricks or more. Even if S has only 6 diamonds, that's 6 sure tricks in diamonds, 1 in clubs and 2 in hearts. There is nothing the opponents can attack effectively. When S has a useful extra card, a 7th diamond, a king of clubs, Q of hearts, you have an immediate 10 tricks in NT or more. 

North's thinking with that monster hand should be a choice between bidding 3 NT immediately, taking a near sure thing or exploring for 6 diamonds. In fact, N can be pretty sure that if 5 diamonds is bid and made it will be a poor match point result, usually outscored by taking 10 tricks or more at NT. 10 tricks at NT even outscores 5 diamonds making 6 (430 vs 420). As it happens, the 4 diamond bid almost paid off. S probably thought hard about bidding on with the extra length and an outside K. 

I understand the reticence with neither A nor K of the trump suit. Had S bid 5 diamonds, N would get a chance to redeem him/herself. Knowing that 5 diamonds is a poor matchpoint contract, N should risk 6 diamonds or even 6NT. If E leads the A of spades against 6 NT, N can claim the next 12 tricks. Count them! If the A is not led, any number of plays will bring in 12 tricks, the simplest being a lead of a spade toward the J early in the hand. Again, count them!

 For players who are surprised I'm advocating a slam on a combined 28 high card points, this is a special case. N knows that the long diamonds will bring in lots of tricks for a relatively modest number of high card points. 

  In a field of less aggressive players, I'd project that 3NT making 5 or 6 will score well above average, so there's no need to risk the excellent slam that should be bid in an aggressive field.

  I can't resist adding a point that is pretty advanced for this discussion. Feel free to ignore it unless you are really on the verge of the next level. When deciding whether to preempt or not, your position is very important. If you are dealer, you should not be either very aggressive or very conservative. If you are in 2nd position (i.e. R hand opp has passed and neither LHO or partner have spoken) you should be at your most conservative relative to vulnerability. In 3rd seat you should be your most aggressive. In 4th seat, when you are in position to pass the hand out, be fairly conservative. If the decision is close, open if your suit is spades, pass if your spades are 2 or fewer. 


No comments:

Post a Comment