Question: The resulting play of this bidding made either 3NT or 4 spades. How do you decide whether to settle for 3NT or move on to 4 spades?
Mark:
Actually, as long as South plays the hand, 6 NT or 6 spades should be made, regardless of what card is led.
Some bridge teachers would disagree strongly with the opening of 1NT holding a 6 card diamond suit. I disagree with that criticism, meaning I think 1NT is OK. Add almost any jack to the hand and it would be too strong for 1NT and, of course, the distribution isn't "textbook."
Once a heart is led, if the lead is from the hand with the king and the diamonds break 2-2, 12 tricks are likely to be made in either NT or spades. If the spades happen to be distributed 4-1 and the jack doesn't happen to be the singleton, then, paradoxically, spades becomes a better contract than NT.
Basically, once South makes the arguable opening bid of 1NT, I agree completely with the rest of the auction. Looking only at the 2 hands, you should want to be in the 8 card major suit fit. You could always find exceptions, like this lucky one here, but if you stick with going for the major in this case, you'll be ahead in the long run and this auction is the perfect way to offer and accept that choice.
Even though you almost can't help but make 12 tricks with the favorable breaks and honor card locations, the prior probability of 12 tricks is less than 30%. if you bid such slams regularly, you'll get tops 30% of the time and bottoms 70%.
After 12 tricks
roll home, you don't want to ask your local expert if there's a way to bid the
cold slam. If they fail to point out that you shouldn't bid that slam, you need
a new expert. If they say you should end up in NT, not spades, you also need a
new expert and I'd love to play that "expert" for money. Keep bidding
like N-S here and you'll do very well.
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