Tuesday, August 2, 2022

Weekly Hand Analysis - August 8, 2022 - Mark Olsky - 1NT?

 

Question

E is holding 17 HCP and 3 4-card suits and opens 1 NT. W responds with a transfer to 2 H which gets a 2 NT bid from declarer. 

It did make 2 NT,  is there a better place for this hand to be played?

Mark:

  First the bidding: It is legal, though often not advisable, to open 1NT with 4:4:4:1 and 15 to 17  HCP. It's usually best to take the transfer in the singleton suit. It might be OK to play it there if partner doesn't do anything further, as would be the case here. 

A diamond lead and very careful defense thereafter will defeat 2 hearts. If a club is led, which is also reasonable, 2 hearts will probably make and 3 is possible. Declarer must lead hearts at every opportunity, which gives the defenders 3 heart tricks but no ruffs.  

Bidding 2 NT is not a good idea, even though it worked out this time. If south makes the normal lead of the 6 of spades to the Q and king, south knows that north doesn't have the spade jack, meaning that declarer has it, so when she gets in with the club king, it looks right to shift to a red suit. If the defense doesn't make the slightest mistake, 2 NT will go down. The defenders can collect 3 hearts, 2 spades and at least 1 club. 

The best contract is 2 or 3 diamonds. 2 makes for sure and 3 has decent chances. It takes very restrained bidding to end up at 2 diamonds. 

I would have opened the east hand 1 diamond, then 1 spade after a 1 heart response. If south is aggressive and puts in a 1 spade overcall, it gets interesting. West doesn't have enough to bid 2 hearts, which would show a 5 card suit, but a much stronger hand. West could pass a 1 spade overcall, make a slightly unusual negative double or bid 2 diamonds. 

All 3 options are unattractive in some ways. 3 diamonds will be the contract with sound bidding and should score +110. If east smells a misfit, especially if south gets a chance and uses it to overcall 1 spade over 1 diamond, it might help EW stay low. 

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