Wednesday, August 31, 2022

Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - September 26, 2022 - Heart Rebid


 Question: 

E has a 14 HCP and 2 5-card Major Suits. During the auction should E have rebid the Hearts? 

The 3 NT bud went down 1

Mark:

The East hand is a good example of "bidding out the pattern." Disciplined bidding should be consistent with two 5-card suits, especially if they are both majors. The first bid of (2) hearts promises 4, tentatively. It doesn't show 5 unless the suit is re- bid. West makes a nice bid of 2NT, which is not forcing and allows the auction to stop at 2 NT if E has a minimum hand (which he does) and only 4 hearts (which he does not in this case) If E now bids 3 hearts, he completes a picture perfect description of the hand, 5-5 in the majors and minimum strength. Yes, it's 14 points, but the club Q doesn't carry full weight, even in partner's long suit. There's too much possibility of entry problems. At the point where E bids 2 hearts, the hand is not yet limited. It could even be 20+ points, so W is required to bid even if she has no love for either major. The recommended 3 heart rebid by E sends a clear message. Now the hand is shown to be limited, maximum of 15 points and 5-5 in the majors. If west has a minimum hand, as in this case, and the hand is not improved by the 2nd heart bid,(i.e. 2 cards in each major), as is not the case here, then W can pass 3 hearts or correct to 3 spades. (That correction doesn't promise 3 spades. 3 spades have already been denied by the 2 NT bid) Even though the 2 hands could have a total of 25 points, misfits with 25 points are odds against making 3 NT. However, in this case, the 3 heart bid Really improves the W hand.  An 8 card major suit fit has been discovered and that makes game a significantly better bet. On these actual hands careful play will make 4 hearts. A diamond lead holds the hand to 4, but leading from K-J- 10 is risky against a suit contract and usually costs a trick. In this case, a non- diamond lead is likely to allow East's 2nd diamond to be thrown on the club K after the Ace is conceded and that results in making 5. Note that I said careful play. After the spade K is led and north takes the Ace, at the next opportunity East ruffs a little spade rather than cashing further spade winners. Otherwise, you risk the possibility that North will over- ruff and you possibly go down in a game that should make. Please note that if East happened to have been dealt only 4 hearts, even with the beautiful A-K-Q, and an extra small card in one of the minors, I would pass 2 NT. The hand has a tiny bit extra compared to a minimum opener, but the fact that after the Q and J of spades, the spot cards are puny, I think 2 NT is high enough; that is in the hypothetical case of 5 spades and 4 hearts.

  Incidentally, if we are not shown the N-S cards, 4 hearts is far from a sure thing. It's probably about 55% likely to be made. Defense is difficult, so even games that can be beaten may be allowed to make, so I like to bid it. More cautious people could end in 2 or 3 hearts and occasionally could be rewarded for their cowardice. I wouldn't let that ( going down in 4H) stop me from bidding a game next time. 

  This is a terrific hand for practicing hand play.  I suggest you lay it out with real cards and practice playing it after several possible opening leads. It doesn't get much better than this hand for strengthening your suit contract play. I recommend you pretend re- play this hand once a day for about a week. I promise it will make you a better player of suit contracts for a long time to come.

 

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