Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - September 5, 2022 - Penalty Double

 Question: 

S has opened 1 D, W and N pass and E with 18 HCP and three 4-card suits issues a T/O double.

W has only 3 HCP and passes.

 S makes 1 Dx for 140 pts

 How do you think the bidding should have gone?

Mark:

The bidding in the diagram is very understandable, but I have a slight disagreement.

 I think most experienced players would open 1 H, not 1 D with the N hand. With any two 5 card suits, you bid the higher ranking, even when the suit is weaker. It's not just about major vs. minor, it's about the difficulty of completing the description of your hand, i.e, the dreaded rebid problem. 

When you open 1 D on the actual hand and, hypothetically, the opponents don't bail you out of the trap you've set for yourself by overcalling, if you then bid hearts, that is a reverse and shows a strong hand and doesn't promise a 5 card suit; in fact, it pretty much denies 5. If you decide not to  play reverses, you will end in many part- scores where you should be in game or slam. 

There is only one practical option if you hate talking about reverses and that's to play a strong club system where any hand that is not opened 1 club is  not powerful. Even if you play a "strong club", that north hand should be opened 1 H. If, hypothetically, the 2 suits are 5 spades headed by the jack and hearts are 5 headed by A,K,Q, you open 1 spade! It's about what you bid next to complete the description, not about the relative desirability of bidding majors or stronger suits. Trust me on this one. You will have consistently better scores at the end of your sessions if you adopt this approach. 

OK now, to the actual bidding. To bid 2 hearts after the overcall, south should promise a 5 card suit, not a 4 card suit. It was lucky that N had 5 of them, but 2 H is forcing and N is expected to raise with 3, since they expect an 8 card fit in the combined hands. 

  The decisions for both sides on the 4 and 5 level on the actual hand are difficult. No one is absolutely sure of whether they can make their bid or, if not, whether they have a good save because the other side can make theirs. That's a common dilemma. If you want a rule of thumb to follow, this is often a good one: The 5 level belongs to the opponents. The side that buys it at 5 can be too high or too low. Sometimes it's just right.

  In this case, 4 spades is unlikely to be made with good play, even though it can be made by peeking ( As the old joke goes, "A peek is worth 2 finesses.) or making a lucky anti- percentage play. Ironically, a beginner is more likely to make 4 spades than an expert. 

An expert will figure that laying down the Ace  of clubs works if either north or south have a singleton king while leading the queen from the east side only works when north, specifically, has the singleton jack. The expert line works twice as often, but not this time. Since there are exactly 3 losers outside clubs in an E-W spade contract, it all comes down to not losing a club. Taking the save against 4 spades by bidding 5 hearts is very cheap insurance, so I like the 5H bid. Also, even though 4 spades should go down when everyone plays good percentage bridge, 4 spades is great insurance because 4 hearts by N-S will surely be made. If E-W make the mistake of leading a red suit before 2 spades are cashed, 5 hearts will be made. The E-W bidding on this hand is spot on, but the double is  a little lucky. If spades break 3-1 instead of 2-2, which is close to 50%, then 5 H makes. In that case, the double makes a bad result slightly worse. I think it's worth taking a shot.