Weekly Hand Analysis - Mark Olsky - October 3, 2022 - Game

Question: 

Here is a hand where the point count says that there is a possibility of making a game. 

S has 17 HCP and opens 1C, N has 10 pts and responds with 1H which  declarer supports. 

Could this hand have been played in NT? (it made 5 H)

If so, what should the auction have looked like?

Mark:

Most N-S players will be in NT, not hearts with only 7 cards between the 2 hands. even though hearts is a safer contract. Most standard players will open the south hand 1NT and then NS will be in 3 NT after N checks for a 4 card major then bids 3NT after a denial. Even if N bids only 2 NT, invitational, which is ultra conservative but understandable with an aceless 10 points and no 5 card suit, South will bid 3 with a super maximum. Since W will lead a spade against 3NT, everyone that plays it right(Low from dummy at trick 1) will make 5. Thus, everyone who is in the excellent contract of 4 hearts, making 5 will have a bad score, slightly better than bidding only 2 hearts and making 5. So why is 4 hearts an excellent contract? Imagine flipping the positions of the spade A and Q in 3NT. Now a spade lead will go: small (by far the better play, unless you are peeking at the E-W cards), Q small. Now E returns a spade and South can only make 8 tricks, as the heart A allows W to cash the remaining spades before N-S can get even 1 heart trick. In a heart contract, the relative positions of the A and Q of spades can spell the difference between making 4 or 5, but the game is safe as long as there's no horrendous break in trumps.

  Now back to the bidding. South apparently judged the hand too good to open only 1 NT. If you stay with that judgment, when N bids 1 of a major, you should jump to 2 NT or 3 of partner's suit, so you will reach game. 

  Now, back to North's passing 2 Hearts. It's risky to bid again, as you might not make 3 of anything, but it's also quite risky to pass, as you might have a game that will be bid at other tables.  Passing this hand is exceedingly cautious. Most, not all, players will invite game. How do you invite? You already showed 4 hearts with the 1st bid, so if you now bid 3 hearts, you show a 5card suit, which is not what you have. The better way to invite is to bid 2 NT, letting partner know you have 10 points and only 4 hearts. Now you reach 3 NT from the north and probably get a diamond lead. I'd have to write 2 more pages about how that will go. Suffice it to say that most pairs that play 3 NT from the N should make 10 tricks with careful play. With careless but unlucky play they will make 8 tricks; with careless but lucky play they will take 10 or 11.

  Here's what I think is the best lesson of the bidding on this hand: Once you decide on a general strategy for the hand (i.e. this hand is too good to just open 1NT) then don't change horses in midstream. I fully support assessing this as an 18 point hand, so continue to bid it as such, jumping at round #2.